Nera Bogodinţi vs Metalurgistul Cugir: prediction and stats
Liga III - Serie 7Group 7 - 5Kick-off on September 23, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Nera Bogodinţi the favourite at 45%, against 24% for a draw and 31% for Metalurgistul Cugir. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nera Bogodinţi vs Metalurgistul Cugir?
A very open match: only 80 Elo points separate Nera Bogodinţi (1,372) and Metalurgistul Cugir (1,452).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 2 matches in all competitions, Nera Bogodinţi have 0 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats; Metalurgistul Cugir have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 9, 2022 | Gloria al Oraşului Geoag(away) | 0-13 | Cupa României |
| Jul 6, 2022 | Turceni(home) | 0-4 | Cupa României |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | Jiul Petroşani(home) | 0-1 | Cupa României |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Hidro Mecanica Sugag(away) | 10-0 | Cupa României |
| May 22, 2026 | Minaur Baia Mare(home) | 3-3 | Liga III - Play-offs |
| May 15, 2026 | Sănătatea Cluj(away) | 2-3 | Liga III - Play-offs |
| May 8, 2026 | Unirea Tășnad(home) | 1-1 | Liga III - Play-offs |
How many goals should we expect?
Nera Bogodinţi score 0.0 and concede 8.5 goals per match over their last 2; Metalurgistul Cugir score 1.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nera Bogodinţi | 0.0 | 8.5 | 0 | 0/2 | 2/2 |
| Metalurgistul Cugir | 1.7 | 1.7 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 2 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Metalurgistul Cugir | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 38 | 25 | 40 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nera Bogodinţi vs Metalurgistul Cugir?
- The Footlab model makes Nera Bogodinţi the favourite at 45%, against 24% for a draw and 31% for Metalurgistul Cugir.
- Where and when is Nera Bogodinţi vs Metalurgistul Cugir played?
- Nera Bogodinţi vs Metalurgistul Cugir is played on September 23, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC), in the Liga III - Serie 7.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.