New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic: prediction and stats
USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on September 27, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park, Albuquerque, New Mexico
The Footlab model makes New Mexico United the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 27% for Sacramento Republic. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?
A very open match: only 15 Elo points separate New Mexico United (1,817) and Sacramento Republic (1,802).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, New Mexico United have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Sacramento Republic have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Loudoun United(away) | 0-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Tulsa(home) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Monterey Bay(away) | 5-2 | USL Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Colorado Springs(home) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Lexington(away) | 4-1 | USL Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Phoenix Rising(home) | 2-2 | USL Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lexington(home) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds(away) | 0-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 6, 2026 | FC Tulsa(away) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Sporting JAX(home) | 5-0 | USL Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 New Mexico United win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Sacramento Republic win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 21, 2026 | Sacramento Republic 0-1 New Mexico United | USL Championship |
| Aug 31, 2025 | New Mexico United 0-2 Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Sacramento Republic 2-1 New Mexico United | USL Championship |
| Sep 30, 2024 | Sacramento Republic 4-0 New Mexico United | USL Championship |
| Sep 19, 2024 | New Mexico United 3-1 Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| Oct 22, 2023 | Sacramento Republic 1-0 New Mexico United | USL Championship |
Last archived meeting: Sacramento Republic vs New Mexico United on Jun 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
New Mexico United score 1.7 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Sacramento Republic score 1.2 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico United | 1.7 | 0.9 | 8 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Sacramento Republic | 1.2 | 0.9 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
New Mexico United sit 9th in USL Championship (15 points from 11 matches) and Sacramento Republic sit 6th (16 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Mexico United | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 17 | 34 |
| 6 | Sacramento Republic | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 16 |
| 6 | Sacramento Republic | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 27 | 18 | 31 |
| 9 | New Mexico United | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 13 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?
- The Footlab model makes New Mexico United the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 27% for Sacramento Republic.
- Where and when is New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic played?
- New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic is played on September 27, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC) at Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park, in the USL Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 7, 2026Lexington1-2Louisville City
- Mar 7, 2026Charleston Battery2-1Pittsburgh Riverhounds
- Mar 8, 2026Sporting JAX0-3Hartford Athletic
- Mar 8, 2026Birmingham Legion0-1Tampa Bay Rowdies
- Mar 8, 2026San Antonio2-1Phoenix Rising
- Mar 8, 2026El Paso Locomotive2-2Colorado Springs
- Mar 8, 2026Sacramento Republic2-0FC Tulsa
- Mar 8, 2026Monterey Bay0-1Oakland Roots