Newry City AFC vs H&W Welders: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 9Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)The Showgrounds, Newry
The Footlab model makes H&W Welders the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Newry City AFC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newry City AFC vs H&W Welders?
H&W Welders starts as the favourite with a 190-point Elo edge (1,434 vs 1,244).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newry City AFC have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; H&W Welders have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Warrenpoint Town(home) | 0-3 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rathfriland(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Glenavon FC(home) | 1-4 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ballinamallard United(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Bangor(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Strabane Athletic(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Armagh City(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Queen's University(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Warrenpoint Town(home) | 3-0 | Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Dungannon Swifts(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Newry City AFC win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 H&W Welders win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2025 | H&W Welders 4-1 Newry City AFC | Championship |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Newry City AFC 2-2 H&W Welders | Championship |
| Sep 28, 2024 | H&W Welders 2-1 Newry City AFC | Championship |
| Oct 3, 2023 | H&W Welders 1-2 Newry City AFC | League Cup |
| Jan 7, 2023 | Newry City AFC 1-2 H&W Welders | Irish Cup |
| Apr 19, 2022 | H&W Welders 0-3 Newry City AFC | Championship |
Last archived meeting: H&W Welders vs Newry City AFC on Feb 22, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Newry City AFC score 1.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; H&W Welders score 1.6 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newry City AFC | 1.1 | 1.2 | 7 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
| H&W Welders | 1.6 | 1.4 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newry City AFC sit 10th in Championship (6 points from 4 matches) and H&W Welders sit 2nd (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | H&W Welders | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | H&W Welders | 38 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 87 | 48 | 66 |
| 3 | H&W Welders | 33 | 17 | 8 | 8 | 77 | 41 | 59 |
| 10 | Newry City AFC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newry City AFC vs H&W Welders?
- The Footlab model makes H&W Welders the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Newry City AFC.
- Where and when is Newry City AFC vs H&W Welders played?
- Newry City AFC vs H&W Welders is played on September 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at The Showgrounds, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.