Nissa vs CastrumFavara: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone IGroup I - 10Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Marco Tomaselli, Caltanissetta
The Footlab model makes Nissa the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for CastrumFavara. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nissa vs CastrumFavara?
Nissa starts as the favourite with a 164-point Elo edge (1,844 vs 1,680).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nissa have 10 wins, 5 draws and 0 defeats; CastrumFavara have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Reggina(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone I |
| May 10, 2026 | Gelbison(home) | 4-0 | Serie D - Girone I |
| May 3, 2026 | Paternò(home) | 4-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Sambiase(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Enna(home) | 3-0 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Enna(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Paternò(away) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Gela(home) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 12, 2026 | AC Palermo(away) | 3-0 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Acireale(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Nissa win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 CastrumFavara win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | CastrumFavara 0-1 Nissa | Serie D - Girone I |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Nissa 3-2 CastrumFavara | Serie D - Girone I |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Nissa 0-0 CastrumFavara | Serie D - Girone I |
| Oct 20, 2024 | CastrumFavara 2-2 Nissa | Serie D - Girone I |
Last archived meeting: CastrumFavara vs Nissa on Jan 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Nissa score 1.9 and concede 0.4 goals per match over their last 15; CastrumFavara score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nissa | 1.9 | 0.4 | 9 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| CastrumFavara | 1.5 | 1.3 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nissa sit 2nd in Serie D - Girone I (67 points from 34 matches) and CastrumFavara sit 11th (38 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Nissa | 34 | 19 | 10 | 5 | 50 | 26 | 67 |
| 11 | CastrumFavara | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 47 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nissa vs CastrumFavara?
- The Footlab model makes Nissa the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for CastrumFavara.
- Where and when is Nissa vs CastrumFavara played?
- Nissa vs CastrumFavara is played on November 1, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Marco Tomaselli, in the Serie D - Girone I.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.