North Texas vs Houston Dynamo FC II: prediction and stats
MLS Next ProGroup StageKick-off on September 10, 2026 at 12:45 AM (UTC)Choctaw Stadium, Arlington, Texas
The Footlab model makes Houston Dynamo FC II the favourite at 40%, against 24% for a draw and 36% for North Texas. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win North Texas vs Houston Dynamo FC II?
A very open match: only 52 Elo points separate North Texas (1,630) and Houston Dynamo FC II (1,682).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, North Texas have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Houston Dynamo FC II have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Minnesota United II(home) | 1-1 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Austin II(home) | 0-0 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Portland Timbers II(home) | 0-3 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Tacoma Defiance(home) | 3-1 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ventura County(away) | 1-6 | MLS Next Pro |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | St. Louis City II(away) | 2-2 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 19, 2026 | The Town(home) | 1-1 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ventura County(home) | 0-2 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Real Monarchs(home) | 3-0 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sporting KC II(away) | 2-3 | MLS Next Pro |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 North Texas win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Houston Dynamo FC II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Houston Dynamo FC II 2-0 North Texas | MLS Next Pro |
| Jul 14, 2025 | Houston Dynamo FC II 3-0 North Texas | MLS Next Pro |
| May 19, 2025 | North Texas 2-1 Houston Dynamo FC II | MLS Next Pro |
| Mar 23, 2025 | Houston Dynamo FC II 5-1 North Texas | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 18, 2024 | North Texas 4-1 Houston Dynamo FC II | MLS Next Pro |
| Jul 22, 2024 | Houston Dynamo FC II 4-0 North Texas | MLS Next Pro |
Last archived meeting: Houston Dynamo FC II vs North Texas on Mar 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
North Texas score 1.4 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Houston Dynamo FC II score 1.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Texas | 1.4 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Houston Dynamo FC II | 1.9 | 1.4 | 3 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
North Texas sit 9th in MLS Next Pro (33 points from 23 matches) and Houston Dynamo FC II sit 3rd (48 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Houston Dynamo FC II | 23 | 17 | 0 | 6 | 48 | 24 | 48 |
| 3 | Houston Dynamo FC II | 23 | 17 | 0 | 6 | 48 | 24 | 48 |
| 3 | Houston Dynamo FC II | 21 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 45 | 21 | 45 |
| 4 | North Texas | 23 | 11 | 0 | 12 | 34 | 34 | 33 |
| 9 | North Texas | 23 | 11 | 0 | 12 | 34 | 34 | 33 |
| 10 | North Texas | 21 | 9 | 0 | 12 | 33 | 33 | 29 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for North Texas vs Houston Dynamo FC II?
- The Footlab model makes Houston Dynamo FC II the favourite at 40%, against 24% for a draw and 36% for North Texas.
- Where and when is North Texas vs Houston Dynamo FC II played?
- North Texas vs Houston Dynamo FC II is played on September 10, 2026 at 12:45 AM (UTC) at Choctaw Stadium, in the MLS Next Pro.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Feb 28, 2026Inter Miami II1-1Chicago Fire II
- Feb 28, 2026Philadelphia Union II1-0Toronto II
- Feb 28, 2026St. Louis City II4-0Sporting KC II
- Mar 1, 2026Chattanooga1-4Crown Legacy
- Mar 1, 2026Portland Timbers II2-1The Town
- Mar 1, 2026New York RB II4-2Columbus Crew II
- Mar 1, 2026Real Monarchs2-2North Texas
- Mar 1, 2026FC Cincinnati II1-3Connecticut FC