Notaresco vs Ancona: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone FGroup F - 1Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Vincenzo Savini, Notaresco
The Footlab model makes Ancona the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for Notaresco. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Notaresco vs Ancona?
A very open match: only 60 Elo points separate Notaresco (1,760) and Ancona (1,819).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Notaresco have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Ancona have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Teramo(away) | 1-3 | Serie D - Girone F |
| May 10, 2026 | Ancona(away) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| May 3, 2026 | Ancona(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Victor San Marino(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Termoli Calcio(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Notaresco(home) | 1-3 | Serie D - Girone F |
| May 3, 2026 | Notaresco(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 26, 2026 | L'Aquila(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Sammaurese(home) | 3-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Fossombrone(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Notaresco win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Ancona win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Ancona 1-3 Notaresco | Serie D - Girone F |
| May 3, 2026 | Ancona 1-1 Notaresco | Serie D - Girone F |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Notaresco 1-1 Ancona | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Ancona 3-1 Notaresco | Serie D - Girone F |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Notaresco 0-1 Ancona | Serie D - Girone F |
How many goals should we expect?
Notaresco score 1.4 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Ancona score 1.3 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notaresco | 1.4 | 1.0 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Ancona | 1.3 | 1.0 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Notaresco sit 5th in Serie D - Girone F (51 points from 34 matches) and Ancona sit 2nd (76 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ancona | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 59 | 22 | 76 |
| 5 | Notaresco | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 43 | 31 | 51 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Notaresco vs Ancona?
- The Footlab model makes Ancona the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for Notaresco.
- Where and when is Notaresco vs Ancona played?
- Notaresco vs Ancona is played on September 6, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Vincenzo Savini, in the Serie D - Girone F.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.