Match

Notaresco vs Fossombrone: prediction and stats

Serie D - Girone FGroup F · Matchday 14Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Vincenzo Savini, Notaresco

NotarescoFossombrone

The Footlab AI model makes Notaresco the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Fossombrone. The most likely score is 1-1. If Notaresco wins, the most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,644 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Notaresco vs Fossombrone?

A very open match: only 45 Elo points separate Notaresco (1,755) and Fossombrone (1,711).

49%27%24%
Notaresco winDrawFossombrone win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Notaresco vs Fossombrone

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Notaresco

Not enough data to predict the Notaresco lineup.

Fossombrone

Not enough data to predict the Fossombrone lineup.

Computed on November 13, 2026 at 04:07 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Notaresco have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Fossombrone have 6, 3 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Notaresco
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 8, 2026Angelana(away)0-2Serie D - Girone F
Nov 1, 2026L'Aquila(home)0-0Serie D - Girone F
Oct 25, 2026Lanciano FC(away)0-0Serie D - Girone F
Oct 18, 2026Maceratese(home)5-2Serie D - Girone F
Oct 10, 2026Recanatese(home)2-1Serie D - Girone F
Fossombrone
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 8, 2026Santegidiese(home)4-1Serie D - Girone F
Nov 1, 2026Pietralunga(away)0-0Serie D - Girone F
Oct 25, 2026Teramo(home)2-4Serie D - Girone F
Oct 18, 2026Ancona(away)3-2Serie D - Girone F
Oct 11, 2026Termoli Calcio(home)1-2Serie D - Girone F

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Notaresco wins, 3 draws, 1 Fossombrone win.

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 1, 2026Notaresco 1-1 FossombroneSerie D - Girone F
Oct 26, 2025Fossombrone 0-1 NotarescoSerie D - Girone F
Mar 2, 2025Notaresco 1-0 FossombroneSerie D - Girone F
Oct 27, 2024Fossombrone 1-1 NotarescoSerie D - Girone F
Mar 3, 2024Fossombrone 2-0 NotarescoSerie D - Girone F
Oct 28, 2023Notaresco 0-0 FossombroneSerie D - Girone F

Last archived meeting: Notaresco vs Fossombrone on Mar 1, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Notaresco score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Fossombrone score 1.3 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Notaresco1.31.249/157/15
Fossombrone1.31.748/159/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Notaresco sit 8th in Serie D - Girone F (16 points from 11 matches) and Fossombrone sit 6th (17 points from 11 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
6Fossombrone11524161817
8Notaresco11443131116

A question about Notaresco vs Fossombrone?

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Notaresco vs Fossombrone?
The Footlab AI model makes Notaresco the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Fossombrone.
Where and when is Notaresco vs Fossombrone played?
Notaresco vs Fossombrone is played on November 29, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Vincenzo Savini, in the Serie D - Girone F.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Notaresco and Fossombrone