Where and when is Notaresco vs Fossombrone played?

Notaresco vs Fossombrone is played on November 29, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Vincenzo Savini, in the Serie D - Girone F.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Notaresco vs Fossombrone: prediction and stats

Serie D - Girone FGroup F - 14Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Vincenzo Savini, Notaresco

Notaresco

Fossombrone

The Footlab model makes Notaresco the favourite at 52%, against 28% for a draw and 19% for Fossombrone. The most likely score is 1-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Notaresco vs Fossombrone?

A very open match: only 67 Elo points separate Notaresco (1,739) and Fossombrone (1,672).

Notaresco win52 %

Draw28 %

Fossombrone win19 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Notaresco have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Fossombrone have 3, 5 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Notaresco
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 17, 2026	Teramo(away)	1-3	Serie D - Girone F
May 10, 2026	Ancona(away)	3-1	Serie D - Girone F
May 3, 2026	Ancona(away)	1-1	Serie D - Girone F
Apr 26, 2026	Victor San Marino(home)	1-2	Serie D - Girone F
Apr 19, 2026	Termoli Calcio(away)	2-1	Serie D - Girone F

Fossombrone
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 1, 2026	Cesena(away)	0-3	Friendlies Clubs
May 3, 2026	Recanatese(away)	0-2	Serie D - Girone F
Apr 26, 2026	Castelfidardo Calcio(home)	3-1	Serie D - Girone F
Apr 19, 2026	Atletico Ascoli(away)	1-1	Serie D - Girone F
Apr 12, 2026	Ancona(home)	1-2	Serie D - Girone F

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Notaresco win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Fossombrone win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 1, 2026	Notaresco 1-1 Fossombrone	Serie D - Girone F
Oct 26, 2025	Fossombrone 0-1 Notaresco	Serie D - Girone F
Mar 2, 2025	Notaresco 1-0 Fossombrone	Serie D - Girone F
Oct 27, 2024	Fossombrone 1-1 Notaresco	Serie D - Girone F
Mar 3, 2024	Fossombrone 2-0 Notaresco	Serie D - Girone F
Oct 28, 2023	Notaresco 0-0 Fossombrone	Serie D - Girone F

Last archived meeting: Notaresco vs Fossombrone on Mar 1, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Notaresco score 1.4 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Fossombrone score 0.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Notaresco	1.4	1.0	5	9/15	8/15
Fossombrone	0.7	1.3	4	6/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Notaresco sit 5th in Serie D - Girone F (51 points from 34 matches) and Fossombrone sit 9th (44 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
5	Notaresco	34	13	12	9	43	31	51
9	Fossombrone	34	11	11	12	28	34	44

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Notaresco vs Fossombrone?: The Footlab model makes Notaresco the favourite at 52%, against 28% for a draw and 19% for Fossombrone.
Where and when is Notaresco vs Fossombrone played?: Notaresco vs Fossombrone is played on November 29, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Vincenzo Savini, in the Serie D - Girone F.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.