Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 18Kick-off on December 1, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Meadow Lane, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire
The Footlab model makes Notts County the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for AFC Wimbledon. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon?
Notts County starts as the favourite with a 101-point Elo edge (1,826 vs 1,725).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Notts County have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; AFC Wimbledon have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Luton(away) | 2-2 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Leicester(home) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Burnley(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Walsall(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Reading(home) | 0-0 | League One |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Leyton Orient(away) | 1-1 | EFL Trophy |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Huddersfield(away) | 0-3 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Newport County(home) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | QPR(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Notts County win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 AFC Wimbledon win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2025 | AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Notts County | League Two |
| May 10, 2025 | Notts County 0-1 AFC Wimbledon | League Two |
| Mar 8, 2025 | AFC Wimbledon 2-0 Notts County | League Two |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Notts County 1-0 AFC Wimbledon | League Two |
| Mar 9, 2024 | Notts County 0-2 AFC Wimbledon | League Two |
| Nov 25, 2023 | AFC Wimbledon 4-2 Notts County | League Two |
Last archived meeting: AFC Wimbledon vs Notts County on May 17, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Notts County score 1.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; AFC Wimbledon score 0.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notts County | 1.1 | 1.2 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| AFC Wimbledon | 0.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Notts County sit 15th in League One (2 points from 2 matches) and AFC Wimbledon sit 23rd (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Notts County | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 23 | AFC Wimbledon | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon?
- The Footlab model makes Notts County the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for AFC Wimbledon.
- Where and when is Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon played?
- Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon is played on December 1, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Meadow Lane, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.