Odorheiu Secuiesc vs Aerostar Bacau: prediction and stats
Liga III - Serie 1Group 1 - 5Kick-off on September 23, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stadionul Municipal, Odorheiu Secuiesc
The Footlab model makes Odorheiu Secuiesc the favourite at 62%, against 20% for a draw and 18% for Aerostar Bacau. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Odorheiu Secuiesc vs Aerostar Bacau?
Odorheiu Secuiesc starts as the favourite with a 101-point Elo edge (1,466 vs 1,365).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Odorheiu Secuiesc have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Aerostar Bacau have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | Gheorgheni(away) | 0-1 | Cupa României |
| May 16, 2026 | Gheorgheni(away) | 1-2 | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| May 8, 2026 | Aerostar Bacau(home) | 6-2 | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| May 1, 2026 | USV Iaşi(away) | 1-1 | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Bucovina Rădăuţi(home) | 2-2 | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | Viitorul Onesti(home) | 0-1 | Cupa României |
| Jul 29, 2026 | CSM FC Vaslui(home) | 3-1 | Cupa României |
| May 16, 2026 | Bucovina Rădăuţi(home) | 2-1 | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| May 8, 2026 | Odorheiu Secuiesc(away) | 2-6 | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| May 1, 2026 | CSM FC Vaslui(home) | 3-0 | Liga III - Serie 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Odorheiu Secuiesc win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Aerostar Bacau win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | Odorheiu Secuiesc 6-2 Aerostar Bacau | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| Dec 12, 2025 | Odorheiu Secuiesc 1-0 Aerostar Bacau | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| Sep 26, 2025 | Aerostar Bacau 5-3 Odorheiu Secuiesc | Liga III - Serie 1 |
Last archived meeting: Odorheiu Secuiesc vs Aerostar Bacau on May 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Odorheiu Secuiesc score 1.7 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Aerostar Bacau score 1.7 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odorheiu Secuiesc | 1.7 | 1.8 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Aerostar Bacau | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Odorheiu Secuiesc sit 2nd in Liga III - Serie 1 (40 points from 7 matches) and Aerostar Bacau sit 5th (35 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Odorheiu Secuiesc | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 11 | 40 |
| 5 | Aerostar Bacau | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 17 | 35 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Odorheiu Secuiesc vs Aerostar Bacau?
- The Footlab model makes Odorheiu Secuiesc the favourite at 62%, against 20% for a draw and 18% for Aerostar Bacau.
- Where and when is Odorheiu Secuiesc vs Aerostar Bacau played?
- Odorheiu Secuiesc vs Aerostar Bacau is played on September 23, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stadionul Municipal, in the Liga III - Serie 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.