Olimpija Ljubljana vs Mura: prediction and stats
1. SNLRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Stožice, Ljubljana
The Footlab model makes Olimpija Ljubljana the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Mura. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Olimpija Ljubljana vs Mura?
Olimpija Ljubljana starts as the favourite with a 156-point Elo edge (1,770 vs 1,614).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Olimpija Ljubljana have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Mura have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Nafta(home) | 1-0 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Maribor(home) | 1-1 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Celje(away) | 0-1 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Aluminij(home) | 1-0 | 1. SNL |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Mura(away) | 0-1 | 1. SNL |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Koper(home) | 0-1 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Brinje-Grosuplje(away) | 2-1 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Radomlje(home) | 1-3 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Nafta(away) | 2-5 | 1. SNL |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Olimpija Ljubljana(home) | 1-0 | 1. SNL |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Olimpija Ljubljana win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Mura win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 2026 | Mura 1-0 Olimpija Ljubljana | 1. SNL |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Mura 0-0 Olimpija Ljubljana | 1. SNL |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Olimpija Ljubljana 1-0 Mura | 1. SNL |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Mura 0-2 Olimpija Ljubljana | 1. SNL |
| Jul 19, 2025 | Olimpija Ljubljana 1-0 Mura | 1. SNL |
| May 10, 2025 | Mura 1-1 Olimpija Ljubljana | 1. SNL |
Last archived meeting: Mura vs Olimpija Ljubljana on Jul 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Olimpija Ljubljana score 1.2 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Mura score 1.1 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olimpija Ljubljana | 1.2 | 1.2 | 4 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Mura | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Olimpija Ljubljana sit 7th in 1. SNL (7 points from 6 matches) and Mura sit 3rd (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mura | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 7 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 7 |
| 8 | Mura | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Olimpija Ljubljana vs Mura?
- The Footlab model makes Olimpija Ljubljana the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Mura.
- Where and when is Olimpija Ljubljana vs Mura played?
- Olimpija Ljubljana vs Mura is played on October 10, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Stožice, in the 1. SNL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.