Mura vs Maribor: prediction and stats
1. SNLRegular Season - 17Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Mestni Štadion Fazanerija, Murska Sobota
The Footlab AI model makes Maribor the favourite at 64%, against 20% for a draw and 16% for Mura. The most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,403 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mura vs Maribor?
Maribor starts as the favourite with a 235-point Elo edge (1,859 vs 1,623).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mura vs Maribor
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mura
3-4-3- 30K. Kurtovic
- 3Aleksandar Zeljković
- 71B. Dimitrov
- 10N. Kouter
- 7N. Kasalo
- 18A. Zalaznik
- 47Š. Butić
- 26B. Proleta
- 56M. Matić
- 21Ž. Petrovič
- 33Ž. Fermišek
Maribor
4-3-3- 70I. Tshipamba
- 17J. Mlakar
- 99B. Feta
- 7T. Cipot
- 5Ž. Jevšenak
- 8Claude Gonçalves
- 25M. Blažič
- 6B. M'bondo
- 21V. Koderman
- 23Ž. Karničnik
- 1A. Jug
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 06:32 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mura have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Maribor have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Olimpija Ljubljana(away) | 3-3 | 1. SNL |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Celje(home) | 0-0 | 1. SNL |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Aluminij(home) | 1-6 | 1. SNL |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Maribor(away) | 1-1 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Bravo(away) | 0-2 | 1. SNL |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Brinje-Grosuplje(away) | 2-1 | 1. SNL |
| Sep 28, 2026 | HNK Gorica(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Aluminij(home) | 2-2 | 1. SNL |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Radomlje(away) | 3-0 | 1. SNL |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Mura(home) | 1-1 | 1. SNL |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Mura win, 1 draw, 4 Maribor wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | Maribor 1-1 Mura | 1. SNL |
| May 17, 2026 | Mura 2-1 Maribor | 1. SNL |
| Mar 14, 2026 | Maribor 3-0 Mura | 1. SNL |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Mura 0-1 Maribor | 1. SNL |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Maribor 1-0 Mura | 1. SNL |
| Apr 21, 2025 | Mura 1-2 Maribor | 1. SNL |
How many goals should we expect?
Mura score 1.2 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Maribor score 1.8 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mura | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Maribor | 1.8 | 0.9 | 5 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mura sit 9th in 1. SNL (10 points from 11 matches) and Maribor sit 1st (23 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maribor | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 21 | 9 | 23 |
| 9 | Mura | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 24 | 10 |
A question about Mura vs Maribor?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mura vs Maribor?
- The Footlab AI model makes Maribor the favourite at 64%, against 20% for a draw and 16% for Mura.
- Where and when is Mura vs Maribor played?
- Mura vs Maribor is played on November 28, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Mestni Štadion Fazanerija, in the 1. SNL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.