Olympiakos vs AEK Larnaca: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 10Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Makareio Stadio, Lefkosía
The Footlab model makes AEK Larnaca the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 24% for Olympiakos. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Olympiakos vs AEK Larnaca?
AEK Larnaca starts as the favourite with a 256-point Elo edge (2,011 vs 1,755).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Olympiakos have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; AEK Larnaca have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | Anorthosis(home) | 1-0 | 1. Division |
| May 9, 2026 | AEL(away) | 3-1 | 1. Division |
| May 1, 2026 | Omonia Aradippou(home) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Ethnikos Achna(away) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Akritas(home) | 0-1 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Omonia Aradippou(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Beitar Jerusalem(away) | 3-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Beitar Jerusalem(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Apollon Limassol(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Helmond Sport(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Olympiakos win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 AEK Larnaca win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | AEK Larnaca 1-1 Olympiakos | 1. Division |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Olympiakos 1-4 AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
| Jan 20, 2023 | Olympiakos 0-2 AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
| Oct 17, 2022 | AEK Larnaca 4-2 Olympiakos | 1. Division |
| Feb 9, 2022 | Olympiakos 0-0 AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
| Sep 27, 2021 | AEK Larnaca 1-0 Olympiakos | 1. Division |
Last archived meeting: AEK Larnaca vs Olympiakos on Mar 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Olympiakos score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; AEK Larnaca score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympiakos | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| AEK Larnaca | 1.2 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Olympiakos sit 11th in 1. Division (40 points from 33 matches) and AEK Larnaca sit 2nd (69 points from 36 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AEK Larnaca | 36 | 20 | 9 | 7 | 62 | 33 | 69 |
| 11 | Olympiakos | 33 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 32 | 44 | 40 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Olympiakos vs AEK Larnaca?
- The Footlab model makes AEK Larnaca the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 24% for Olympiakos.
- Where and when is Olympiakos vs AEK Larnaca played?
- Olympiakos vs AEK Larnaca is played on November 21, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Makareio Stadio, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.