Match

Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional: prediction and stats

Copa ColombiaSemi-finalsKick-off on November 11, 2026 at 01:30 AM (UTC)Estadio Palogrande, Manizales

Once CaldasAtletico Nacional

The Footlab AI model makes Once Caldas the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Atletico Nacional. The most likely score is 1-1. If Once Caldas wins, the most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.0% of the 4,836 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 7, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional?

On Elo ratings, Once Caldas has 1,801 points and Atletico Nacional 1,916.

40%28%32%
Once Caldas winDrawAtletico Nacional win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Once Caldas

4-2-3-1
  1. 11J. Zapata
  1. 7M. Barrios
  2. 42J. Quiñónes
  3. 9Pipe Gómez
  4. 23A. Colorado
  5. 5J. Nieto
  1. 22J. Cuesta
  2. 30D. Londoño
  3. 2J. Cardona
  4. 33J. Patiño
  1. 99J. Parra

Atletico Nacional

4-2-3-1
  1. 23J. Rodríguez
  1. 26F. Marin
  2. 10E. Cardona
  3. 22E. Cabrera
  4. 21J. Campuzano
  5. 80J. Zapata
  1. 16W. Tesillo
  2. 15A. Reyes
  3. 6A. Román
  4. 33S. Velásquez
  1. 34F. Armani

Computed on November 7, 2026 at 12:11 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Once Caldas have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Atletico Nacional have 9, 4 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Once Caldas
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 2, 2026Santa Fe(away)2-0Copa Colombia
Oct 28, 2026Alianza Valledupar(home)1-0Primera A
Oct 25, 2026Deportivo Pereira(home)1-1Primera A
Oct 21, 2026Millonarios(away)1-1Primera A
Oct 18, 2026Independiente Medellin(away)2-0Primera A
Atletico Nacional
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 3, 2026Bucaramanga(away)1-1Primera A
Oct 30, 2026Santa Fe(home)2-0Primera A
Oct 25, 2026Independiente Medellin(home)2-1Primera A
Oct 23, 2026Deportivo Pasto(home)3-0Primera A
Oct 20, 2026Cucuta(away)0-1Primera A

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Once Caldas win, 1 draw, 4 Atletico Nacional wins.

DateScoreCompetition
May 1, 2026Once Caldas 1-0 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
Oct 22, 2025Atletico Nacional 2-0 Once CaldasCopa Colombia
Oct 10, 2025Once Caldas 0-1 Atletico NacionalCopa Colombia
Jul 12, 2025Once Caldas 1-3 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
Jun 19, 2025Once Caldas 1-2 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
Jun 2, 2025Atletico Nacional 0-0 Once CaldasPrimera A

Last archived meeting: Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional on May 1, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Once Caldas score 1.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico Nacional score 1.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Once Caldas1.10.967/153/15
Atletico Nacional1.90.958/157/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

A question about Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional?
The Footlab AI model makes Once Caldas the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Atletico Nacional.
Where and when is Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional played?
Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional is played on November 11, 2026 at 01:30 AM (UTC) at Estadio Palogrande, in the Copa Colombia.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.0% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Once Caldas and Atletico Nacional

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