Where and when is Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas played?

Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas is played on November 8, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot, in the Primera A.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas: prediction and stats

Primera AClausura - 19Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellín

Atletico Nacional

Once Caldas

The Footlab model makes Atletico Nacional the favourite at 58%, against 25% for a draw and 17% for Once Caldas. The most likely score is 1-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas?

A very open match: only 98 Elo points separate Atletico Nacional (1,916) and Once Caldas (1,818).

Atletico Nacional win58 %

Draw25 %

Once Caldas win17 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico Nacional have 11 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats; Once Caldas have 5, 8 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Atletico Nacional
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Fortaleza FC(away)	2-1	Primera A
Aug 10, 2026	America de Cali(away)	0-1	Primera A
Aug 2, 2026	Jaguares(away)	3-0	Primera A
Jul 29, 2026	Tigres FC(away)	2-0	Copa Colombia
Jul 21, 2026	Tigres FC(home)	2-0	Copa Colombia

Once Caldas
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 24, 2026	Junior(away)	1-1	Primera A
Aug 9, 2026	Jaguares(away)	1-1	Primera A
Aug 6, 2026	America de Cali(home)	0-1	Primera A
Aug 3, 2026	Santa Fe(away)	2-2	Primera A
Jul 30, 2026	Envigado(away)	3-0	Copa Colombia

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Atletico Nacional win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Once Caldas win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
May 1, 2026	Once Caldas 1-0 Atletico Nacional	Primera A
Oct 22, 2025	Atletico Nacional 2-0 Once Caldas	Copa Colombia
Oct 10, 2025	Once Caldas 0-1 Atletico Nacional	Copa Colombia
Jul 12, 2025	Once Caldas 1-3 Atletico Nacional	Primera A
Jun 19, 2025	Once Caldas 1-2 Atletico Nacional	Primera A
Jun 2, 2025	Atletico Nacional 0-0 Once Caldas	Primera A

Last archived meeting: Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional on May 1, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Atletico Nacional score 1.9 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Once Caldas score 1.6 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Atletico Nacional	1.9	0.8	6	5/15	7/15
Once Caldas	1.6	0.9	4	9/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Atletico Nacional sit 1st in Primera A (40 points from 19 matches) and Once Caldas sit 5th (33 points from 19 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Nacional	19	13	1	5	35	15	40
1	Atletico Nacional	25	18	1	6	49	21	55
5	Once Caldas	19	8	9	2	31	22	33
5	Once Caldas	21	8	10	3	33	25	34
9	Once Caldas	5	1	3	1	9	6	6
10	Atletico Nacional	3	2	0	1	5	2	6

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas?: The Footlab model makes Atletico Nacional the favourite at 58%, against 25% for a draw and 17% for Once Caldas.
Where and when is Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas played?: Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas is played on November 8, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot, in the Primera A.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.