Match

Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas: prediction and stats

Primera AClausura - 19Kick-off on November 12, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellín

Atletico NacionalOnce Caldas

The Footlab AI model makes Atletico Nacional the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Once Caldas. The most likely score is 1-1. If Atletico Nacional wins, the most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 4,728 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 7, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas?

Atletico Nacional starts as the favourite with a 115-point Elo edge (1,917 vs 1,802).

47%28%25%
Atletico Nacional winDrawOnce Caldas win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Atletico Nacional

4-2-3-1
  1. 29A. Sarmiento
  1. 26F. Marin
  2. 10E. Cardona
  3. 22E. Cabrera
  4. 21J. Campuzano
  5. 80J. Zapata
  1. 16W. Tesillo
  2. 15A. Reyes
  3. 20M. Casco
  4. 6A. Román
  1. 34F. Armani

Once Caldas

4-2-3-1
  1. 11J. Zapata
  1. 7M. Barrios
  2. 42J. Quiñónes
  3. 9Pipe Gómez
  4. 23A. Colorado
  5. 5J. Nieto
  1. 22J. Cuesta
  2. 30D. Londoño
  3. 2J. Cardona
  4. 33J. Patiño
  1. 99J. Parra

Computed on November 7, 2026 at 02:32 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico Nacional have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Once Caldas have 7, 4 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Atletico Nacional
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 3, 2026Bucaramanga(away)1-1Primera A
Oct 30, 2026Santa Fe(home)2-0Primera A
Oct 25, 2026Independiente Medellin(home)2-1Primera A
Oct 23, 2026Deportivo Pasto(home)3-0Primera A
Oct 20, 2026Cucuta(away)0-1Primera A
Once Caldas
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 2, 2026Santa Fe(away)2-0Copa Colombia
Oct 28, 2026Alianza Valledupar(home)1-0Primera A
Oct 25, 2026Deportivo Pereira(home)1-1Primera A
Oct 21, 2026Millonarios(away)1-1Primera A
Oct 18, 2026Independiente Medellin(away)2-0Primera A

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Atletico Nacional wins, 1 draw, 1 Once Caldas win.

DateScoreCompetition
May 1, 2026Once Caldas 1-0 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
Oct 22, 2025Atletico Nacional 2-0 Once CaldasCopa Colombia
Oct 10, 2025Once Caldas 0-1 Atletico NacionalCopa Colombia
Jul 12, 2025Once Caldas 1-3 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
Jun 19, 2025Once Caldas 1-2 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
Jun 2, 2025Atletico Nacional 0-0 Once CaldasPrimera A

Last archived meeting: Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional on May 1, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Atletico Nacional score 1.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Once Caldas score 1.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Atletico Nacional1.90.958/157/15
Once Caldas1.10.967/153/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Atletico Nacional sit 1st in Primera A (36 points from 17 matches) and Once Caldas sit 9th (24 points from 17 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
1Atletico Nacional171133331436
9Once Caldas17665211824

A question about Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas?
The Footlab AI model makes Atletico Nacional the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Once Caldas.
Where and when is Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas played?
Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas is played on November 12, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot, in the Primera A.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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