Where and when is One Knoxville vs Naples played?

One Knoxville vs Naples is played on September 12, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC) at Covenant Health Park, in the USL League One.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

One Knoxville vs Naples: prediction and stats

USL League OneGroup StageKick-off on September 12, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC)Covenant Health Park, Knoxville, Tennessee

One Knoxville

Naples

The Footlab model makes One Knoxville the favourite at 66%, against 21% for a draw and 13% for Naples. The most likely score is 2-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win One Knoxville vs Naples?

One Knoxville starts as the favourite with a 171-point Elo edge (1,791 vs 1,620).

One Knoxville win66 %

Draw21 %

Naples win13 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, One Knoxville have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Naples have 3, 1 and 11.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

One Knoxville
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Boise(home)	2-2	USL League One
Aug 19, 2026	Portland Hearts of Pine(home)	1-1	USL League One
Aug 15, 2026	Greenville Triumph(away)	1-1	USL League One
Aug 8, 2026	Sarasota Paradise(home)	2-1	USL League One
Aug 1, 2026	Charlotte Independence(away)	1-3	USL League One

Naples
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Alta(away)	2-1	USL League One
Aug 15, 2026	Westchester SC(away)	2-3	USL League One
Aug 5, 2026	Alta(home)	2-1	USL League One
Jul 25, 2026	Forward Madison(away)	1-3	USL League One
Jul 11, 2026	Tampa Bay Rowdies(away)	0-2	USL League One Cup

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 3 One Knoxville win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Naples win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
May 2, 2026	Naples 0-3 One Knoxville	USL League One
Nov 9, 2025	One Knoxville 1-0 Naples	USL League One
Aug 27, 2025	One Knoxville 0-0 Naples	USL League One
Apr 19, 2025	Naples 0-1 One Knoxville	USL League One

Last archived meeting: Naples vs One Knoxville on May 2, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

One Knoxville score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Naples score 1.1 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
One Knoxville	1.7	1.3	2	12/15	9/15
Naples	1.1	2.1	1	9/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

One Knoxville sit 4th in USL League One (39 points from 22 matches) and Naples sit 11th (23 points from 21 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
4	One Knoxville	22	11	6	5	37	25	39
11	Naples	21	7	2	12	25	35	23

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for One Knoxville vs Naples?: The Footlab model makes One Knoxville the favourite at 66%, against 21% for a draw and 13% for Naples.
Where and when is One Knoxville vs Naples played?: One Knoxville vs Naples is played on September 12, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC) at Covenant Health Park, in the USL League One.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.