Orlando Pirates vs Mamelodi Sundowns: prediction and stats
Premier Soccer LeagueRegular Season - 26Kick-off on April 24, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Orlando Stadium, Johannesburg, GA
The Footlab model makes Orlando Pirates the favourite at 50%, against 28% for a draw and 22% for Mamelodi Sundowns. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Orlando Pirates vs Mamelodi Sundowns?
A very open match: only 3 Elo points separate Orlando Pirates (2,026) and Mamelodi Sundowns (2,029).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Orlando Pirates have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Mamelodi Sundowns have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sekhukhune United(away) | 1-0 | 8 Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Chippa United(away) | 3-0 | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Amazulu(away) | 1-1 | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Durban City(home) | 2-1 | 8 Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Milford FC(home) | 2-0 | Premier Soccer League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Golden Arrows(home) | 0-1 | 8 Cup |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Marumo Gallants(home) | 2-0 | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kaizer Chiefs(away) | 1-1 | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | TS Galaxy(away) | 3-2 | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Polokwane City(home) | 3-2 | 8 Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Orlando Pirates win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Mamelodi Sundowns win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2026 | Orlando Pirates 1-2 Mamelodi Sundowns | Premier Soccer League |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Mamelodi Sundowns 1-1 Orlando Pirates | Premier Soccer League |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Mamelodi Sundowns 1-1 Orlando Pirates | 8 Cup |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Orlando Pirates 1-1 Mamelodi Sundowns | 8 Cup |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Orlando Pirates 2-1 Mamelodi Sundowns | Premier Soccer League |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Mamelodi Sundowns 4-1 Orlando Pirates | Premier Soccer League |
Last archived meeting: Orlando Pirates vs Mamelodi Sundowns on Feb 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Orlando Pirates score 1.5 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Mamelodi Sundowns score 2.0 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando Pirates | 1.5 | 0.6 | 8 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Mamelodi Sundowns | 2.0 | 1.2 | 4 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Orlando Pirates sit 1st in Premier Soccer League (7 points from 3 matches) and Mamelodi Sundowns sit 3rd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orlando Pirates | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Orlando Pirates vs Mamelodi Sundowns?
- The Footlab model makes Orlando Pirates the favourite at 50%, against 28% for a draw and 22% for Mamelodi Sundowns.
- Where and when is Orlando Pirates vs Mamelodi Sundowns played?
- Orlando Pirates vs Mamelodi Sundowns is played on April 24, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Orlando Stadium, in the Premier Soccer League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.