Oxford City vs Chorley: prediction and stats
National League - NorthNational League North - 7Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)RAW Charging Stadium, Oxford, Oxfordshire
The Footlab model makes Oxford City the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Chorley. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Oxford City vs Chorley?
A very open match: only 62 Elo points separate Oxford City (1,844) and Chorley (1,781).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Oxford City have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Chorley have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Spennymoor Town(away) | 4-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Harborough Town(home) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Spalding United(away) | 1-0 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bedford Town(home) | 1-0 | National League - North |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Slough Town(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Scarborough Athletic(home) | 2-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Marine(away) | 2-0 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | South Shields(away) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chester(home) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Trafford(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Oxford City win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Chorley win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Oxford City 2-0 Chorley | National League - North |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Chorley 3-3 Oxford City | National League - North |
| Jan 21, 2025 | Chorley 0-0 Oxford City | National League - North |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Oxford City 2-2 Chorley | National League - North |
Last archived meeting: Oxford City vs Chorley on Mar 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Oxford City score 1.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Chorley score 0.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oxford City | 1.9 | 1.0 | 4 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
| Chorley | 0.9 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Oxford City sit 2nd in National League - North (10 points from 4 matches) and Chorley sit 9th (6 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Oxford City | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Chorley | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Oxford City vs Chorley?
- The Footlab model makes Oxford City the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Chorley.
- Where and when is Oxford City vs Chorley played?
- Oxford City vs Chorley is played on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at RAW Charging Stadium, in the National League - North.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.