Chorley vs Hereford: prediction and stats
National League - NorthNational League North - 16Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Victory Park, Chorley, Lancashire
The Footlab model makes Chorley the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Hereford. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chorley vs Hereford?
A very open match: only 17 Elo points separate Chorley (1,776) and Hereford (1,793).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chorley have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Hereford have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Scarborough Athletic(home) | 2-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Marine(away) | 2-0 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | South Shields(away) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chester(home) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Trafford(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Worksop Town(away) | 3-0 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Radcliffe(home) | 3-0 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Marine(home) | 1-0 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Buxton(away) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bromsgrove Sporting(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Chorley win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Hereford win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | Chorley 4-2 Hereford | National League - North |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Hereford 1-4 Chorley | National League - North |
| Dec 14, 2024 | Hereford 1-0 Chorley | National League - North |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Chorley 1-1 Hereford | National League - North |
| Mar 9, 2024 | Hereford 0-1 Chorley | National League - North |
| Oct 28, 2023 | Chorley 1-2 Hereford | National League - North |
How many goals should we expect?
Chorley score 0.9 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Hereford score 1.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chorley | 0.9 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Hereford | 1.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chorley sit 9th in National League - North (6 points from 4 matches) and Hereford sit 6th (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Hereford | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Chorley | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chorley vs Hereford?
- The Footlab model makes Chorley the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Hereford.
- Where and when is Chorley vs Hereford played?
- Chorley vs Hereford is played on November 7, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Victory Park, in the National League - North.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.