Oxford United vs Burton Albion: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)The Kassam Stadium, Oxford, Oxfordshire
The Footlab model makes Oxford United the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Burton Albion. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Oxford United vs Burton Albion?
A very open match: only 27 Elo points separate Oxford United (1,857) and Burton Albion (1,831).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Oxford United have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Burton Albion have 3, 8 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Stevenage(away) | 2-1 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Milton Keynes Dons(home) | 2-2 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Leyton Orient(away) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ipswich(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Leicester(away) | 2-1 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Stevenage(home) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Blackburn(home) | 1-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Derby(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Solihull Moors(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Oxford United win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Burton Albion win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2024 | Burton Albion 0-4 Oxford United | League One |
| Dec 16, 2023 | Oxford United 3-0 Burton Albion | League One |
| Jan 28, 2023 | Burton Albion 2-0 Oxford United | League One |
| Sep 3, 2022 | Oxford United 2-1 Burton Albion | League One |
| Mar 5, 2022 | Oxford United 4-1 Burton Albion | League One |
| Oct 23, 2021 | Burton Albion 1-3 Oxford United | League One |
Last archived meeting: Burton Albion vs Oxford United on Apr 6, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Oxford United score 1.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Burton Albion score 0.8 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oxford United | 1.5 | 1.2 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Burton Albion | 0.8 | 1.0 | 4 | 8/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Oxford United sit 5th in League One (4 points from 2 matches) and Burton Albion sit 7th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Oxford United | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 7 | Burton Albion | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Oxford United vs Burton Albion?
- The Footlab model makes Oxford United the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Burton Albion.
- Where and when is Oxford United vs Burton Albion played?
- Oxford United vs Burton Albion is played on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at The Kassam Stadium, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.