Stevenage vs Luton: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 10, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)The Lamex Stadium, Stevenage, Hertfordshire
The Footlab model makes Luton the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Stevenage. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Stevenage vs Luton?
Luton starts as the favourite with a 110-point Elo edge (1,941 vs 1,831).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Stevenage have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Luton have 11, 3 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Oxford United(home) | 1-2 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Burton Albion(away) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Wycombe(away) | 2-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Colchester(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Millwall(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Notts County(home) | 2-2 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Reading(away) | 4-3 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gillingham(away) | 3-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | GO Ahead Eagles(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Al Kholood(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Stevenage win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Luton win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | Luton 2-1 Stevenage | League One |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Stevenage 2-0 Luton | League One |
| Aug 10, 2021 | Stevenage 2-2 Luton | League Cup |
| Feb 10, 2018 | Stevenage 1-1 Luton | League Two |
| Oct 14, 2017 | Luton 7-1 Stevenage | League Two |
| Mar 11, 2017 | Luton 0-2 Stevenage | League Two |
How many goals should we expect?
Stevenage score 0.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Luton score 2.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevenage | 0.9 | 1.3 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Luton | 2.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Stevenage sit 19th in League One (1 points from 2 matches) and Luton sit 3rd (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Luton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| 19 | Stevenage | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Stevenage vs Luton?
- The Footlab model makes Luton the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Stevenage.
- Where and when is Stevenage vs Luton played?
- Stevenage vs Luton is played on September 10, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at The Lamex Stadium, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.