Paganese vs Aranova: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone GGroup G - 14Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Marcello Torre, Pagani
The Footlab AI model makes Paganese the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Aranova. The most likely score is 1-1. If Paganese wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,440 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Paganese vs Aranova?
A very open match: only 71 Elo points separate Paganese (1,698) and Aranova (1,627).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Paganese vs Aranova
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Paganese
Not enough data to predict the Paganese lineup.
Aranova
Not enough data to predict the Aranova lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 10:06 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Paganese have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Aranova have 2, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Budoni(home) | 3-0 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Real Normanna(home) | 1-1 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Sarnese(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Gelbison(home) | 2-3 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Trastevere(away) | 6-1 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Trastevere(home) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Certosa V. Campagnano(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Latte Dolce(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Monastir(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Albalonga(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone G |
How many goals should we expect?
Paganese score 1.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Aranova score 1.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paganese | 1.8 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Aranova | 1.1 | 1.0 | 3 | 4/7 | 3/7 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Paganese sit 7th in Serie D - Girone G (10 points from 6 matches) and Aranova sit 13th (6 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Paganese | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 9 | 10 |
| 13 | Aranova | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
A question about Paganese vs Aranova?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Paganese vs Aranova?
- The Footlab AI model makes Paganese the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Aranova.
- Where and when is Paganese vs Aranova played?
- Paganese vs Aranova is played on November 29, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Marcello Torre, in the Serie D - Girone G.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.