Paganese vs Sarrabus Ogliastra: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone GGroup G - 28Kick-off on March 21, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Marcello Torre, Pagani
The Footlab AI model makes Paganese the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Sarrabus Ogliastra. The most likely score is 1-1. If Paganese wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,904 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Paganese vs Sarrabus Ogliastra?
Paganese starts as the favourite with a 148-point Elo edge (1,793 vs 1,645).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Paganese vs Sarrabus Ogliastra
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Paganese
Not enough data to predict the Paganese lineup.
Sarrabus Ogliastra
Not enough data to predict the Sarrabus Ogliastra lineup.
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 11:36 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Paganese have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Sarrabus Ogliastra have 2, 6 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Venafro(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Budoni(home) | 3-0 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Real Normanna(home) | 1-1 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Sarnese(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Gelbison(home) | 2-3 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Trastevere(away) | 2-3 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Afragolese(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Latte Dolce(away) | 0-3 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Latte Dolce(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Unipomezia(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone G |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 4 Paganese wins, 0 draws, 0 Sarrabus Ogliastra wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2025 | Sarrabus Ogliastra 0-3 Paganese | Serie D - Girone G |
| Nov 1, 2024 | Paganese 4-1 Sarrabus Ogliastra | Serie D - Girone G |
| Apr 6, 2023 | Sarrabus Ogliastra 0-1 Paganese | Serie D - Girone G |
| Nov 26, 2022 | Paganese 2-1 Sarrabus Ogliastra | Serie D - Girone G |
Last archived meeting: Sarrabus Ogliastra vs Paganese on Mar 9, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Paganese score 1.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Sarrabus Ogliastra score 0.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paganese | 1.8 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Sarrabus Ogliastra | 0.8 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Paganese sit 3rd in Serie D - Girone G (13 points from 7 matches) and Sarrabus Ogliastra sit 15th (6 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Paganese | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 9 | 13 |
| 15 | Sarrabus Ogliastra | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 6 |
A question about Paganese vs Sarrabus Ogliastra?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Paganese vs Sarrabus Ogliastra?
- The Footlab AI model makes Paganese the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Sarrabus Ogliastra.
- Where and when is Paganese vs Sarrabus Ogliastra played?
- Paganese vs Sarrabus Ogliastra is played on March 21, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Marcello Torre, in the Serie D - Girone G.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.