Paganese vs Sarrabus Ogliastra: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone GGroup G - 28Kick-off on March 21, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Marcello Torre, Pagani
The Footlab model makes Paganese the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Sarrabus Ogliastra. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Paganese vs Sarrabus Ogliastra?
Paganese starts as the favourite with a 104-point Elo edge (1,757 vs 1,652).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Paganese have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Sarrabus Ogliastra have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Martina Franca(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| May 10, 2026 | Città di Fasano(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| May 3, 2026 | Città di Fasano(away) | 0-6 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Nola 1925(home) | 5-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Gravina(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Olbia(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Valmontone(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Real Monterotondo(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Budoni(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Cassino(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone G |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 4 Paganese win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Sarrabus Ogliastra win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2025 | Sarrabus Ogliastra 0-3 Paganese | Serie D - Girone G |
| Nov 1, 2024 | Paganese 4-1 Sarrabus Ogliastra | Serie D - Girone G |
| Apr 6, 2023 | Sarrabus Ogliastra 0-1 Paganese | Serie D - Girone G |
| Nov 26, 2022 | Paganese 2-1 Sarrabus Ogliastra | Serie D - Girone G |
Last archived meeting: Sarrabus Ogliastra vs Paganese on Mar 9, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Paganese score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Sarrabus Ogliastra score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paganese | 1.3 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Sarrabus Ogliastra | 1.3 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sarrabus Ogliastra | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 47 | 51 | 46 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Paganese vs Sarrabus Ogliastra?
- The Footlab model makes Paganese the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Sarrabus Ogliastra.
- Where and when is Paganese vs Sarrabus Ogliastra played?
- Paganese vs Sarrabus Ogliastra is played on March 21, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Marcello Torre, in the Serie D - Girone G.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.