Sarrabus Ogliastra vs Paganese: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone GGroup G - 11Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Campo Sportivo Is Arranas, Tertenia
The Footlab AI model makes Paganese the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Sarrabus Ogliastra. The most likely score is 1-1. If Paganese wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,899 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 20, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sarrabus Ogliastra vs Paganese?
Paganese starts as the favourite with a 148-point Elo edge (1,769 vs 1,621).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Sarrabus Ogliastra vs Paganese
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Sarrabus Ogliastra
Not enough data to predict the Sarrabus Ogliastra lineup.
Paganese
Not enough data to predict the Paganese lineup.
Computed on October 20, 2026 at 02:15 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sarrabus Ogliastra have 2 wins, 6 draws and 7 defeats; Paganese have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Trastevere(away) | 2-3 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Afragolese(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Latte Dolce(away) | 0-3 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Latte Dolce(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Unipomezia(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Venafro(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Budoni(home) | 3-0 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Real Normanna(home) | 1-1 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Sarnese(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Gelbison(home) | 2-3 | Serie D - Girone G |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Sarrabus Ogliastra wins, 0 draws, 4 Paganese wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2025 | Sarrabus Ogliastra 0-3 Paganese | Serie D - Girone G |
| Nov 1, 2024 | Paganese 4-1 Sarrabus Ogliastra | Serie D - Girone G |
| Apr 6, 2023 | Sarrabus Ogliastra 0-1 Paganese | Serie D - Girone G |
| Nov 26, 2022 | Paganese 2-1 Sarrabus Ogliastra | Serie D - Girone G |
Last archived meeting: Sarrabus Ogliastra vs Paganese on Mar 9, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Sarrabus Ogliastra score 0.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Paganese score 1.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarrabus Ogliastra | 0.8 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Paganese | 1.8 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sarrabus Ogliastra sit 15th in Serie D - Girone G (6 points from 7 matches) and Paganese sit 3rd (13 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Paganese | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 9 | 13 |
| 15 | Sarrabus Ogliastra | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 6 |
A question about Sarrabus Ogliastra vs Paganese?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sarrabus Ogliastra vs Paganese?
- The Footlab AI model makes Paganese the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Sarrabus Ogliastra.
- Where and when is Sarrabus Ogliastra vs Paganese played?
- Sarrabus Ogliastra vs Paganese is played on November 8, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Campo Sportivo Is Arranas, in the Serie D - Girone G.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.