Paloma vs Buchholz: prediction and stats
Oberliga - HamburgHamburg - 28Kick-off on April 4, 2027 at 08:45 AM (UTC)Jonny Rehbein Sportplatz, Hamburg
The Footlab model makes Paloma the favourite at 52%, against 20% for a draw and 28% for Buchholz. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Paloma vs Buchholz?
Paloma starts as the favourite with a 122-point Elo edge (1,907 vs 1,785).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Paloma have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Buchholz have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Pinneberg(home) | 2-2 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Victoria Hamburg(away) | 5-1 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Vorwärts-Wacker 04(home) | 1-2 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Jul 24, 2026 | HT16(away) | 3-2 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| May 15, 2026 | Türkiye(away) | 6-0 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Concordia(home) | 1-1 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Tus Dassendorf(home) | 0-4 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Sasel(away) | 4-0 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| May 15, 2026 | ETSV Hamburg(away) | 2-6 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| May 12, 2026 | Teutonia Ottensen(home) | 1-2 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Paloma win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Buchholz win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Buchholz 4-0 Paloma | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Paloma 5-0 Buchholz | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Feb 6, 2025 | Buchholz 2-3 Paloma | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Aug 4, 2024 | Paloma 1-4 Buchholz | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Mar 3, 2024 | Buchholz 0-0 Paloma | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Sep 17, 2023 | Paloma 1-3 Buchholz | Oberliga - Hamburg |
How many goals should we expect?
Paloma score 2.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Buchholz score 2.3 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 79% probability of over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paloma | 2.7 | 1.7 | 3 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
| Buchholz | 2.3 | 2.1 | 3 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Paloma sit 5th in Oberliga - Hamburg (61 points from 34 matches) and Buchholz sit 12th (44 points from 34 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Paloma | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 84 | 50 | 61 |
| 12 | Buchholz | 34 | 14 | 2 | 18 | 87 | 80 | 44 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Paloma vs Buchholz?
- The Footlab model makes Paloma the favourite at 52%, against 20% for a draw and 28% for Buchholz.
- Where and when is Paloma vs Buchholz played?
- Paloma vs Buchholz is played on April 4, 2027 at 08:45 AM (UTC) at Jonny Rehbein Sportplatz, in the Oberliga - Hamburg.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 79% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.