Pamplona vs Izarra: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Group 15 - 23Kick-off on February 20, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Campo de Fútbol Beitikuntzea, Lizasoáin
The Footlab model makes Pamplona the favourite at 53%, against 24% for a draw and 23% for Izarra. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pamplona vs Izarra?
A very open match: only 77 Elo points separate Pamplona (1,924) and Izarra (1,847).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pamplona have 9 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeats; Izarra have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 2026 | Real Murcia II(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Real Murcia II(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Izarra(home) | 5-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| May 30, 2026 | Izarra(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| May 23, 2026 | San Juan(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Pamplona(away) | 1-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| May 30, 2026 | Pamplona(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| May 24, 2026 | Subiza(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| May 17, 2026 | Subiza(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| May 9, 2026 | Aoiz(away) | 4-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 Pamplona win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Izarra win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Pamplona 5-1 Izarra | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| May 30, 2026 | Izarra 1-1 Pamplona | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Izarra 0-2 Pamplona | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Pamplona 2-1 Izarra | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| Aug 14, 2023 | Izarra 2-0 Pamplona | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Pamplona score 1.9 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Izarra score 1.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pamplona | 1.9 | 0.8 | 5 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| Izarra | 1.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pamplona sit 2nd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 (74 points from 34 matches) and Izarra sit 3rd (61 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Pamplona | 34 | 22 | 8 | 4 | 65 | 28 | 74 |
| 3 | Izarra | 34 | 16 | 13 | 5 | 64 | 31 | 61 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pamplona vs Izarra?
- The Footlab model makes Pamplona the favourite at 53%, against 24% for a draw and 23% for Izarra.
- Where and when is Pamplona vs Izarra played?
- Pamplona vs Izarra is played on February 20, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de Fútbol Beitikuntzea, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 15.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.