Panathinaikos vs Asteras Tripolis: prediction and stats
Super League 1Regular Season - 7Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Athína (Athens)
The Footlab model makes Panathinaikos the favourite at 63%, against 23% for a draw and 14% for Asteras Tripolis. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Panathinaikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Panathinaikos starts as the favourite with a 259-point Elo edge (2,026 vs 1,767).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Panathinaikos have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Asteras Tripolis have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Hradec Králové(home) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | CSKA 1948(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | CSKA 1948(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Paks(home) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Paks(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Panetolikos(away) | 1-3 | Super League 1 |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Levadiakos(away) | 0-2 | Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | ADO Den Haag(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 21, 2026 | Panetolikos(away) | 2-1 | Super League 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Panathinaikos win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Asteras Tripolis win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Asteras Tripolis 1-2 Panathinaikos | Super League 1 |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Panathinaikos 2-0 Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Asteras Tripolis 0-1 Panathinaikos | Super League 1 |
| Aug 18, 2024 | Panathinaikos 0-1 Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 |
| Jan 21, 2024 | Panathinaikos 2-0 Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 |
| Sep 28, 2023 | Asteras Tripolis 1-4 Panathinaikos | Super League 1 |
Last archived meeting: Asteras Tripolis vs Panathinaikos on Mar 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Panathinaikos score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Asteras Tripolis score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panathinaikos | 1.2 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Asteras Tripolis | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Asteras Tripolis | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Panathinaikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
- The Footlab model makes Panathinaikos the favourite at 63%, against 23% for a draw and 14% for Asteras Tripolis.
- Where and when is Panathinaikos vs Asteras Tripolis played?
- Panathinaikos vs Asteras Tripolis is played on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, in the Super League 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.