PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis: prediction and stats
Super League 1Regular Season - 4Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Toumbas, Thessaloníki
The Footlab model makes PAOK the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Aris Thessalonikis. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
PAOK starts as the favourite with a 112-point Elo edge (2,062 vs 1,950).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, PAOK have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Aris Thessalonikis have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Brann(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Anderlecht(away) | 2-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Anderlecht(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Dynamo Kyiv(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Dynamo Kyiv(away) | 3-2 | UEFA Europa League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kalamata(away) | 3-2 | Super League 1 |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Anagennisi Karditsas(away) | 2-0 | Cup |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Napoli(away) | 2-6 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Monza(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2026 | Levadiakos(home) | 3-0 | Super League 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 PAOK win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Aris Thessalonikis win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2026 | Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 PAOK | Super League 1 |
| Dec 7, 2025 | PAOK 3-1 Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 |
| Dec 3, 2025 | Aris Thessalonikis 1-1 PAOK | Cup |
| Jan 19, 2025 | Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 PAOK | Super League 1 |
| Sep 29, 2024 | PAOK 0-1 Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 |
| May 19, 2024 | Aris Thessalonikis 1-2 PAOK | Super League 1 |
Last archived meeting: Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK on Feb 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
PAOK score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Aris Thessalonikis score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Aris Thessalonikis | 1.7 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aris Thessalonikis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
- The Footlab model makes PAOK the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Aris Thessalonikis.
- Where and when is PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis played?
- PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis is played on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Toumbas, in the Super League 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.