Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis: prediction and stats
Super League 1Regular Season - 11Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Tripoli
The Footlab model makes Aris Thessalonikis the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Asteras Tripolis. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis starts as the favourite with a 182-point Elo edge (1,950 vs 1,768).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Asteras Tripolis have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Aris Thessalonikis have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Panetolikos(away) | 1-3 | Super League 1 |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Levadiakos(away) | 0-2 | Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | ADO Den Haag(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 21, 2026 | Panetolikos(away) | 2-1 | Super League 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kalamata(away) | 3-2 | Super League 1 |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Anagennisi Karditsas(away) | 2-0 | Cup |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Napoli(away) | 2-6 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Monza(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2026 | Levadiakos(home) | 3-0 | Super League 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Asteras Tripolis win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Aris Thessalonikis win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | Asteras Tripolis 0-1 Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 |
| May 10, 2025 | Aris Thessalonikis 4-2 Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Asteras Tripolis 0-2 Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 |
| Dec 23, 2024 | Asteras Tripolis 2-1 Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Aris Thessalonikis 1-1 Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 |
Last archived meeting: Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis on Dec 20, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Asteras Tripolis score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Aris Thessalonikis score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asteras Tripolis | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Aris Thessalonikis | 1.7 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Asteras Tripolis sit 11th in Super League 1 (0 points from 1 matches) and Aris Thessalonikis sit 5th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Aris Thessalonikis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Asteras Tripolis | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis?
- The Footlab model makes Aris Thessalonikis the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Asteras Tripolis.
- Where and when is Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis played?
- Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis is played on November 21, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, in the Super League 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.