PAU vs Nantes: prediction and stats
Ligue 2Regular Season - 12Kick-off on November 6, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Stade Nouste Camp, Bizanos
The Footlab model makes Nantes the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for PAU. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win PAU vs Nantes?
A very open match: only 80 Elo points separate PAU (1,751) and Nantes (1,831).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, PAU have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Nantes have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Nancy(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Dijon(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Annecy(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Real Unión(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Real Sociedad II(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rodez(home) | 2-5 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Laval(away) | 1-2 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | RED Star FC 93(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 2 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Al Wakrah(home) | 5-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Le Mans(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 PAU win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Nantes win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2024 | PAU 1-4 Nantes | Coupe de France |
How many goals should we expect?
PAU score 0.9 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Nantes score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAU | 0.9 | 2.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Nantes | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
PAU sit 12th in Ligue 2 (3 points from 3 matches) and Nantes sit 18th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | PAU | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 18 | Nantes | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for PAU vs Nantes?
- The Footlab model makes Nantes the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for PAU.
- Where and when is PAU vs Nantes played?
- PAU vs Nantes is played on November 6, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Nouste Camp, in the Ligue 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.