Peñarol vs RB do Norte: prediction and stats
Amazonense - 2Regular Season - 7Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Floro de Mendonça, Itacoatiara, Amazonas
The Footlab model makes Peñarol the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for RB do Norte. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Peñarol vs RB do Norte?
A very open match: only 66 Elo points separate Peñarol (1,621) and RB do Norte (1,556).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Peñarol have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; RB do Norte have 1, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 29, 2025 | JC(home) | 1-1 | Amazonense - 2 |
| Jun 22, 2025 | RB do Norte(away) | 2-0 | Amazonense - 2 |
| Jun 15, 2025 | Unidos do Alvorada(home) | 1-0 | Amazonense - 2 |
| May 30, 2025 | Manicoré(away) | 1-1 | Amazonense - 2 |
| May 25, 2025 | Taruma(home) | 2-0 | Amazonense - 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 22, 2025 | Peñarol(home) | 0-2 | Amazonense - 2 |
| Jun 12, 2025 | Manicoré(away) | 1-2 | Amazonense - 2 |
| Jun 8, 2025 | Taruma(home) | 0-3 | Amazonense - 2 |
| May 23, 2025 | Unidos do Alvorada(away) | 0-1 | Amazonense - 2 |
| Sep 11, 2024 | Cliper(away) | 4-4 | Amazonense - 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Peñarol win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 RB do Norte win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 22, 2025 | RB do Norte 0-2 Peñarol | Amazonense - 2 |
Last archived meeting: RB do Norte vs Peñarol on Jun 22, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Peñarol score 0.7 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; RB do Norte score 1.3 and concede 2.4. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peñarol | 0.7 | 1.8 | 4 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| RB do Norte | 1.3 | 2.4 | 1 | 4/8 | 5/8 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Peñarol sit 6th in Amazonense - 2 (3 points from 4 matches) and RB do Norte sit 1st (10 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RB do Norte | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Peñarol | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Peñarol vs RB do Norte?
- The Footlab model makes Peñarol the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for RB do Norte.
- Where and when is Peñarol vs RB do Norte played?
- Peñarol vs RB do Norte is played on August 30, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Floro de Mendonça, in the Amazonense - 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.