Persepam Madura Utd vs Bali United: prediction and stats
Liga 1Regular Season - 13Kick-off on December 8, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Gelora Madura Ratu Pamelingan Stadium, Pamekasan
The Footlab model makes Bali United the favourite at 46%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Persepam Madura Utd. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Persepam Madura Utd vs Bali United?
Bali United starts as the favourite with a 103-point Elo edge (1,775 vs 1,672).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Persepam Madura Utd have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Bali United have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | PSM Makassar(home) | 2-0 | Liga 1 |
| May 17, 2026 | PSIM Yogyakarta(away) | 1-2 | Liga 1 |
| May 11, 2026 | Bhayangkara FC(away) | 1-3 | Liga 1 |
| May 5, 2026 | Bali United(home) | 2-0 | Liga 1 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Semen Padang(away) | 1-0 | Liga 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Persib Bandung(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 22, 2026 | Dewa United(away) | 1-0 | Liga 1 |
| May 17, 2026 | Bhayangkara FC(home) | 4-1 | Liga 1 |
| May 11, 2026 | Pusamania Borneo(home) | 2-3 | Liga 1 |
| May 5, 2026 | Persepam Madura Utd(away) | 0-2 | Liga 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Persepam Madura Utd win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Bali United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 5, 2026 | Persepam Madura Utd 2-0 Bali United | Liga 1 |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Bali United 1-0 Persepam Madura Utd | Liga 1 |
| May 17, 2025 | Bali United 0-2 Persepam Madura Utd | Liga 1 |
| Dec 20, 2024 | Persepam Madura Utd 2-1 Bali United | Liga 1 |
| Jul 24, 2024 | Bali United 2-3 Persepam Madura Utd | Piala Presiden |
| Nov 23, 2023 | Persepam Madura Utd 1-2 Bali United | Liga 1 |
Last archived meeting: Persepam Madura Utd vs Bali United on May 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Persepam Madura Utd score 1.3 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Bali United score 2.1 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Persepam Madura Utd | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Bali United | 2.1 | 1.6 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Persepam Madura Utd sit 14th in Liga 1 (35 points from 34 matches) and Bali United sit 8th (51 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Bali United | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 57 | 48 | 51 |
| 14 | Persepam Madura Utd | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 37 | 54 | 35 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Persepam Madura Utd vs Bali United?
- The Footlab model makes Bali United the favourite at 46%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Persepam Madura Utd.
- Where and when is Persepam Madura Utd vs Bali United played?
- Persepam Madura Utd vs Bali United is played on December 8, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Gelora Madura Ratu Pamelingan Stadium, in the Liga 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.