Pinheirense vs Paraense SC: prediction and stats
Paraense A3Regular Season - 4Kick-off on September 25, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Pinheirense the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Paraense SC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pinheirense vs Paraense SC?
A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate Pinheirense (1,610) and Paraense SC (1,626).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 10 matches in all competitions, Pinheirense have 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Paraense SC have 3, 0 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 22, 2025 | Paragominas(away) | 1-3 | Paraense B1 |
| Jun 19, 2025 | Urumajó(home) | 2-2 | Paraense B1 |
| Jun 11, 2025 | Paragominas(home) | 1-1 | Paraense B1 |
| Jun 7, 2025 | Urumajó(away) | 0-2 | Paraense B1 |
| Oct 15, 2024 | Paragominas(home) | 1-1 | Paraense B1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2025 | Santos PA(away) | 0-3 | Paraense A3 |
| Nov 3, 2025 | Santos PA(home) | 3-1 | Paraense A3 |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Pedreira(home) | 6-0 | Paraense A3 |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Belenense(away) | 0-2 | Paraense A3 |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Pedreira(away) | 0-4 | Paraense A3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Pinheirense score 1.0 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 10; Paraense SC score 1.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinheirense | 1.0 | 1.4 | 2 | 7/10 | 3/10 |
| Paraense SC | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2 | 1/6 | 4/6 |
Over the last 10 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Paraense SC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pinheirense vs Paraense SC?
- The Footlab model makes Pinheirense the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Paraense SC.
- Where and when is Pinheirense vs Paraense SC played?
- Pinheirense vs Paraense SC is played on September 25, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC), in the Paraense A3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.