Belenense vs Sport Belem: prediction and stats
Paraense A3Regular Season - 4Kick-off on September 25, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Belenense the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Sport Belem. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Belenense vs Sport Belem?
A very open match: only 18 Elo points separate Belenense (1,646) and Sport Belem (1,664).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 11 matches in all competitions, Belenense have 6 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats; Sport Belem have 5, 0 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2025 | Santos PA(home) | 2-1 | Paraense A3 |
| Nov 11, 2025 | Santos PA(away) | 2-4 | Paraense A3 |
| Nov 4, 2025 | Vénus(home) | 3-1 | Paraense A3 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Vénus(away) | 0-1 | Paraense A3 |
| Oct 15, 2025 | Pedreira(away) | 3-2 | Paraense A3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | Gavião(home) | 1-0 | Paraense A3 |
| Nov 3, 2025 | Gavião(away) | 0-1 | Paraense A3 |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Tesla(away) | 3-2 | Paraense A3 |
| Oct 15, 2025 | Tiradentes PA(home) | 6-2 | Paraense A3 |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Tesla(home) | 3-0 | Paraense A3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Belenense score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 11; Sport Belem score 2.3 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenense | 1.5 | 1.3 | 3 | 4/11 | 5/11 |
| Sport Belem | 2.3 | 0.8 | 3 | 2/6 | 3/6 |
Over the last 11 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Belenense sit 1st in Paraense A3 (9 points from 4 matches) and Sport Belem sit 1st (12 points from 4 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belenense | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 1 | Sport Belem | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 4 | 12 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Belenense vs Sport Belem?
- The Footlab model makes Belenense the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Sport Belem.
- Where and when is Belenense vs Sport Belem played?
- Belenense vs Sport Belem is played on September 25, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC), in the Paraense A3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.