Ponte da Barca vs Maria da Fonte: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group AGroup A - 21Kick-off on March 7, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo Municipal Ponte da Barca, Ponte da Barca
The Footlab AI model makes Ponte da Barca the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Maria da Fonte. The most likely score is 1-1. If Ponte da Barca wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 4,788 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 7, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ponte da Barca vs Maria da Fonte?
On Elo ratings, Ponte da Barca has 1,819 points and Maria da Fonte 1,732.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Ponte da Barca vs Maria da Fonte
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Ponte da Barca
Not enough data to predict the Ponte da Barca lineup.
Maria da Fonte
4-3-3- 27João Antunes
- 10Henrique Vieira
- 70João Araújo
- 6Davide Caseiro
- AAndré Faria
- 8Dino Fernandes
- 21Cabreira
- 24Leandro Albano
- 83Wilson Oliveira
- 5Rafael Pereira
- 1Paulo Jorge
Computed on November 7, 2026 at 09:23 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 12 matches in all competitions, Ponte da Barca have 4 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Maria da Fonte have 4, 1 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Vinhais(home) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Montalegre(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Rebordosa(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Amarante(home) | 0-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Bragança(away) | 0-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Montalegre(away) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Bragança(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Maia Lidador(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Paredes(away) | 1-5 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | SC Braga B(home) | 0-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
How many goals should we expect?
Ponte da Barca score 0.8 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 12; Maria da Fonte score 0.7 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponte da Barca | 0.8 | 1.2 | 6 | 4/12 | 5/12 |
| Maria da Fonte | 0.7 | 1.9 | 3 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 12 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ponte da Barca sit 10th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A (7 points from 6 matches) and Maria da Fonte sit 13th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Ponte da Barca | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 7 |
| 13 | Maria da Fonte | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 4 |
A question about Ponte da Barca vs Maria da Fonte?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ponte da Barca vs Maria da Fonte?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ponte da Barca the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Maria da Fonte.
- Where and when is Ponte da Barca vs Maria da Fonte played?
- Ponte da Barca vs Maria da Fonte is played on March 7, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Municipal Ponte da Barca, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.