Pontedera vs Cittadella Vis Modena: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone DGroup D - 6Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Ettore Mannucci, Pontedera
The Footlab model makes Cittadella Vis Modena the favourite at 42%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Pontedera. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pontedera vs Cittadella Vis Modena?
Cittadella Vis Modena starts as the favourite with a 103-point Elo edge (1,746 vs 1,643).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pontedera have 0 wins, 5 draws and 10 defeats; Cittadella Vis Modena have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Livorno(home) | 0-2 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Sambenedettese(away) | 1-2 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Ravenna(home) | 0-1 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Apr 3, 2026 | Athletic Carpi(away) | 0-2 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Bra(home) | 0-0 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | Livorno(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Pistoiese(away) | 0-5 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Pro Palazzolo(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Sangiuliano City(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Rovato Vertovese(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
How many goals should we expect?
Pontedera score 0.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Cittadella Vis Modena score 0.8 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pontedera | 0.7 | 1.7 | 1 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Cittadella Vis Modena | 0.8 | 0.9 | 8 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Cittadella Vis Modena | 33 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 35 | 24 | 55 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pontedera vs Cittadella Vis Modena?
- The Footlab model makes Cittadella Vis Modena the favourite at 42%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Pontedera.
- Where and when is Pontedera vs Cittadella Vis Modena played?
- Pontedera vs Cittadella Vis Modena is played on October 4, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Ettore Mannucci, in the Serie D - Girone D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.