Pontevedra II vs Sarriana: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 27Kick-off on March 21, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Pasarón, Pontevedra
The Footlab model makes Sarriana the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Pontevedra II. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pontevedra II vs Sarriana?
Sarriana starts as the favourite with a 238-point Elo edge (1,845 vs 1,607).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pontevedra II have 3 wins, 0 draws and 12 defeats; Sarriana have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2024 | Somozas(away) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 5, 2024 | Alondras(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 1, 2024 | UD Ourense(away) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Paiosaco(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 20, 2024 | Bergantiños(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Racing Santander II(home) | 3-4 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Atlético Astorga(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Marino de Luanco(home) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Bergantiños(away) | 1-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Sámano(home) | 4-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Pontevedra II win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Sarriana win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2024 | Pontevedra II 0-1 Sarriana | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Nov 19, 2023 | Sarriana 5-0 Pontevedra II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Pontevedra II vs Sarriana on Apr 6, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Pontevedra II score 0.8 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 15; Sarriana score 1.4 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pontevedra II | 0.8 | 2.2 | 2 | 5/15 | 9/15 |
| Sarriana | 1.4 | 1.2 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pontevedra II vs Sarriana?
- The Footlab model makes Sarriana the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Pontevedra II.
- Where and when is Pontevedra II vs Sarriana played?
- Pontevedra II vs Sarriana is played on March 21, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Pasarón, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.