Porreres vs Migjorn: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Group 11 - 16Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Porreres the favourite at 65%, against 21% for a draw and 14% for Migjorn. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Porreres vs Migjorn?
Porreres starts as the favourite with a 201-point Elo edge (1,782 vs 1,581).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Porreres have 3 wins, 2 draws and 10 defeats; Migjorn have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Alcoyano(home) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Poblense(away) | 1-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Atlético Baleares(home) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Barbastro(away) | 0-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Barcelona B(home) | 1-5 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2025 | Porreres(home) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| May 3, 2025 | Binissalem(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Apr 30, 2025 | Santanyí(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Portmany(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Manacor(away) | 0-6 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Porreres win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Migjorn win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2025 | Migjorn 1-3 Porreres | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Jan 11, 2025 | Porreres 1-0 Migjorn | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
How many goals should we expect?
Porreres score 0.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Migjorn score 0.6 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Porreres | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Migjorn | 0.6 | 2.5 | 1 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Porreres vs Migjorn?
- The Footlab model makes Porreres the favourite at 65%, against 21% for a draw and 14% for Migjorn.
- Where and when is Porreres vs Migjorn played?
- Porreres vs Migjorn is played on December 20, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC), in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 11.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.