Port Vale vs Manchester City U21: prediction and stats
EFL TrophyGroup North - 4Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Vale Park, Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire
The Footlab model makes Manchester City U21 the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Port Vale. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Port Vale vs Manchester City U21?
Manchester City U21 starts as the favourite with a 131-point Elo edge (1,950 vs 1,819).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Port Vale have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Manchester City U21 have 12, 0 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tranmere(home) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Oldham(away) | 0-2 | League Two |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Wolves(away) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Blackpool(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Real Murcia(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Wolves U21(home) | 4-0 | Premier League 2 Division One |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Mansfield Town(away) | 4-1 | EFL Trophy |
| May 8, 2026 | Manchester United U21(home) | 3-4 | Premier League 2 Division One |
| May 1, 2026 | Aston Villa U21(away) | 3-2 | Premier League 2 Division One |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Arsenal U21(home) | 3-1 | Premier League 2 Division One |
How many goals should we expect?
Port Vale score 0.9 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Manchester City U21 score 3.4 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Vale | 0.9 | 1.4 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Manchester City U21 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Port Vale sit 1st in EFL Trophy (7 points from 3 matches) and Manchester City U21 sit 3rd (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Port Vale | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Manchester City U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Port Vale vs Manchester City U21?
- The Footlab model makes Manchester City U21 the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Port Vale.
- Where and when is Port Vale vs Manchester City U21 played?
- Port Vale vs Manchester City U21 is played on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Vale Park, in the EFL Trophy.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.