Chesterfield vs Manchester City U21: prediction and stats
EFL TrophyGroup North - 4Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)SMH Group Stadium, Chesterfield, Derbyshire
The Footlab model makes Manchester City U21 the favourite at 42%, against 24% for a draw and 35% for Chesterfield. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chesterfield vs Manchester City U21?
Manchester City U21 starts as the favourite with a 122-point Elo edge (1,950 vs 1,828).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chesterfield have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Manchester City U21 have 12, 0 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Salford City(away) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(home) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Scunthorpe(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 14, 2026 | FC Halifax Town(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Wolves U21(home) | 4-0 | Premier League 2 Division One |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Mansfield Town(away) | 4-1 | EFL Trophy |
| May 8, 2026 | Manchester United U21(home) | 3-4 | Premier League 2 Division One |
| May 1, 2026 | Aston Villa U21(away) | 3-2 | Premier League 2 Division One |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Arsenal U21(home) | 3-1 | Premier League 2 Division One |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Chesterfield win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Manchester City U21 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2024 | Chesterfield 1-1 Manchester City U21 | EFL Trophy |
| Nov 29, 2017 | Chesterfield 2-2 Manchester City U21 | EFL Trophy |
Last archived meeting: Chesterfield vs Manchester City U21 on Aug 20, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Chesterfield score 0.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Manchester City U21 score 3.4 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield | 0.9 | 0.7 | 6 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
| Manchester City U21 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chesterfield sit 2nd in EFL Trophy (4 points from 3 matches) and Manchester City U21 sit 3rd (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Chesterfield | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 4 |
| 3 | Manchester City U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chesterfield vs Manchester City U21?
- The Footlab model makes Manchester City U21 the favourite at 42%, against 24% for a draw and 35% for Chesterfield.
- Where and when is Chesterfield vs Manchester City U21 played?
- Chesterfield vs Manchester City U21 is played on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at SMH Group Stadium, in the EFL Trophy.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.