Real Monarchs vs Ventura County: prediction and stats
MLS Next ProGroup StageKick-off on September 20, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Zions Bank Stadium, Herriman, Utah
The Footlab model makes Ventura County the favourite at 52%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for Real Monarchs. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Monarchs vs Ventura County?
Ventura County starts as the favourite with a 120-point Elo edge (1,683 vs 1,563).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Monarchs have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Ventura County have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Colorado Rapids II(away) | 1-4 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Houston Dynamo FC II(away) | 0-3 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 2, 2026 | St. Louis City II(away) | 0-3 | MLS Next Pro |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Portland Timbers II(away) | 0-1 | MLS Next Pro |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Tacoma Defiance(home) | 2-4 | MLS Next Pro |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Houston Dynamo FC II(away) | 2-0 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 1, 2026 | North Texas(home) | 6-1 | MLS Next Pro |
| Jul 26, 2026 | The Town(home) | 3-0 | MLS Next Pro |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Los Angeles FC II(home) | 2-0 | MLS Next Pro |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Vancouver Whitecaps II(away) | 2-3 | MLS Next Pro |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Real Monarchs win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Ventura County win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 28, 2026 | Ventura County 3-1 Real Monarchs | MLS Next Pro |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Ventura County 2-0 Real Monarchs | MLS Next Pro |
| Sep 15, 2025 | Real Monarchs 2-1 Ventura County | MLS Next Pro |
| Jun 2, 2025 | Ventura County 3-3 Real Monarchs | MLS Next Pro |
| Apr 7, 2025 | Real Monarchs 1-2 Ventura County | MLS Next Pro |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Real Monarchs 1-1 Ventura County | MLS Next Pro |
Last archived meeting: Ventura County vs Real Monarchs on Jun 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Real Monarchs score 1.3 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Ventura County score 2.2 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Monarchs | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Ventura County | 2.2 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Real Monarchs sit 11th in MLS Next Pro (26 points from 22 matches) and Ventura County sit 4th (41 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ventura County | 22 | 14 | 0 | 8 | 45 | 28 | 41 |
| 4 | Ventura County | 22 | 14 | 0 | 8 | 45 | 28 | 41 |
| 4 | Ventura County | 22 | 14 | 0 | 8 | 45 | 28 | 41 |
| 6 | Real Monarchs | 22 | 10 | 0 | 12 | 31 | 42 | 26 |
| 11 | Real Monarchs | 22 | 10 | 0 | 12 | 31 | 42 | 26 |
| 11 | Real Monarchs | 22 | 10 | 0 | 12 | 31 | 42 | 26 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Monarchs vs Ventura County?
- The Footlab model makes Ventura County the favourite at 52%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for Real Monarchs.
- Where and when is Real Monarchs vs Ventura County played?
- Real Monarchs vs Ventura County is played on September 20, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Zions Bank Stadium, in the MLS Next Pro.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Feb 28, 2026Inter Miami II1-1Chicago Fire II
- Feb 28, 2026Philadelphia Union II1-0Toronto II
- Feb 28, 2026St. Louis City II4-0Sporting KC II
- Mar 1, 2026Chattanooga1-4Crown Legacy
- Mar 1, 2026Portland Timbers II2-1The Town
- Mar 1, 2026New York RB II4-2Columbus Crew II
- Mar 1, 2026Real Monarchs2-2North Texas
- Mar 1, 2026FC Cincinnati II1-3Connecticut FC