Real vs Alcochetense: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group DGroup D - 23Kick-off on March 21, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Real SC, Queluz
The Footlab model makes Alcochetense the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Real. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real vs Alcochetense?
Alcochetense starts as the favourite with a 237-point Elo edge (1,843 vs 1,606).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real have 0 wins, 3 draws and 12 defeats; Alcochetense have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2025 | Lajeadense(away) | 0-0 | Gaúcho - 2 |
| Jul 23, 2025 | Novo Hamburgo(home) | 0-3 | Gaúcho - 2 |
| Jul 19, 2025 | Passo Fundo(home) | 1-3 | Gaúcho - 2 |
| Jul 16, 2025 | União RS(away) | 1-1 | Gaúcho - 2 |
| Jul 5, 2025 | Gramadense(home) | 0-1 | Gaúcho - 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Portel(home) | 2-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Juventude Évora(away) | 2-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Lagoa(away) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Oriental Lisboa(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 4, 2026 | FC Alverca II(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
How many goals should we expect?
Real score 0.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Alcochetense score 1.4 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real | 0.3 | 1.7 | 2 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
| Alcochetense | 1.4 | 1.0 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real vs Alcochetense?
- The Footlab model makes Alcochetense the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Real.
- Where and when is Real vs Alcochetense played?
- Real vs Alcochetense is played on March 21, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Real SC, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.