Rodina Moskva vs Baltika: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 6Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Arena Khimki, Khimki
The Footlab model makes Rodina Moskva the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Baltika. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rodina Moskva vs Baltika?
A very open match: only 71 Elo points separate Rodina Moskva (1,906) and Baltika (1,976).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rodina Moskva have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Baltika have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Dynamo(away) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | FC Orenburg(home) | 1-4 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Akron(home) | 3-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Zenit(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Rubin(home) | 5-0 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Dinamo Makhachkala(home) | 1-1 | Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Spartak Moscow(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Krylia Sovetov(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Zenit(away) | 0-1 | Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Dynamo(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Rodina Moskva win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Baltika win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | Baltika 2-1 Rodina Moskva | First League |
| Jul 14, 2024 | Rodina Moskva 0-0 Baltika | First League |
| Apr 7, 2023 | Baltika 0-0 Rodina Moskva | First League |
| Sep 18, 2022 | Rodina Moskva 1-2 Baltika | First League |
| Jul 10, 2020 | Baltika 1-2 Rodina Moskva | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Baltika vs Rodina Moskva on Nov 23, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Rodina Moskva score 1.6 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Baltika score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodina Moskva | 1.6 | 1.8 | 5 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Baltika | 1.1 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rodina Moskva sit 13th in Premier League (4 points from 5 matches) and Baltika sit 7th (6 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Baltika | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| 13 | Rodina Moskva | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rodina Moskva vs Baltika?
- The Footlab model makes Rodina Moskva the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Baltika.
- Where and when is Rodina Moskva vs Baltika played?
- Rodina Moskva vs Baltika is played on August 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Arena Khimki, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.