Rouen vs Bastia: prediction and stats
Ligue 3Regular Season - 12Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC)Stade Robert Diochon, Le Petit-Quevilly
The Footlab AI model makes Rouen the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Bastia. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rouen vs Bastia?
Rouen starts as the favourite with a 123-point Elo edge (1,902 vs 1,779).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Rouen vs Bastia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Rouen
4-1-4-1- 9M. Tchokounté
- 13B. Camara
- 10I. Karamoko
- 11N. Sommer
- 12A. Touré
- 19L. Tramoni
- 5J. Gaspar
- 18C. Bassin
- 22Formose Mendy
- 15Z. Lamgahez
- 1A. Maraval
Bastia
4-2-3-1- 12L. Belal
- 17J. Eickmayer
- 4A. Roncaglia
- 22I. Monnier
- 3H. Makalou
- 9F. Tomi
- 35N. Douce
- 2N. Zilliox
- 20G. Akueson
- 34D. Djedje
- 1T. De Percin
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:14 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rouen have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Bastia have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Bourg-en-bresse 01(home) | 2-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Caen(away) | 2-3 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Aubagne(home) | 1-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Thionville Lusitanos(away) | 4-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Valenciennes(home) | 1-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | Orleans(home) | 1-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Gobelins(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Cannes(home) | 1-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Bourg-en-bresse 01(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Amiens(home) | 0-3 | Ligue 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Rouen wins, 0 draws, 1 Bastia win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2023 | Rouen 0-2 Bastia | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Rouen score 1.5 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Bastia score 1.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rouen | 1.5 | 0.7 | 8 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Bastia | 1.0 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rouen sit 2nd in Ligue 3 (20 points from 9 matches) and Bastia sit 12th (11 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Rouen | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 5 | 20 |
| 12 | Bastia | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 11 |
A question about Rouen vs Bastia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rouen vs Bastia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Rouen the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Bastia.
- Where and when is Rouen vs Bastia played?
- Rouen vs Bastia is played on November 7, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC) at Stade Robert Diochon, in the Ligue 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.