Rubin vs Fakel: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 13Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Ak Bars Arena, Kazan'
The Footlab model makes Rubin the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Fakel. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rubin vs Fakel?
A very open match: only 79 Elo points separate Rubin (1,926) and Fakel (1,847).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rubin have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Fakel have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Baltika(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Spartak Moscow(home) | 1-1 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Rostov(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Orenburg(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Rodina Moskva(away) | 0-5 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | FC Orenburg(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Akhmat(away) | 1-2 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | CSKA Moscow(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Akhmat(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Dynamo(home) | 0-1 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Rubin win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Fakel win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2025 | Rubin 2-1 Fakel | Premier League |
| Oct 1, 2024 | Rubin 0-1 Fakel | Cup |
| Sep 27, 2024 | Fakel 0-0 Rubin | Premier League |
| Aug 27, 2024 | Fakel 0-2 Rubin | Cup |
| Nov 26, 2023 | Rubin 1-0 Fakel | Premier League |
| Sep 25, 2023 | Fakel 0-1 Rubin | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Rubin score 1.2 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Fakel score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubin | 1.2 | 1.4 | 3 | 11/15 | 7/15 |
| Fakel | 1.2 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rubin sit 8th in Premier League (6 points from 5 matches) and Fakel sit 15th (2 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rubin | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
| 15 | Fakel | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rubin vs Fakel?
- The Footlab model makes Rubin the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Fakel.
- Where and when is Rubin vs Fakel played?
- Rubin vs Fakel is played on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Ak Bars Arena, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.