Lokomotiv vs Spartak Moscow: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 13Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)RZD Arena, Moskva
The Footlab model makes Spartak Moscow the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Lokomotiv. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lokomotiv vs Spartak Moscow?
Spartak Moscow starts as the favourite with a 127-point Elo edge (2,099 vs 1,972).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lokomotiv have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Spartak Moscow have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | CSKA Moscow(away) | 2-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | FC Rostov(away) | 0-1 | Cup |
| Aug 14, 2026 | FC Orenburg(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Akron(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | CSKA Moscow(home) | 1-1 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Zenit(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Rubin(away) | 1-1 | Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Baltika(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Krasnodar(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | FC Orenburg(home) | 5-1 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Lokomotiv win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Spartak Moscow win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 11, 2026 | Lokomotiv 2-0 Spartak Moscow | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Spartak Moscow 2-1 Lokomotiv | Premier League |
| Nov 26, 2025 | Lokomotiv 2-3 Spartak Moscow | Cup |
| Nov 6, 2025 | Spartak Moscow 3-1 Lokomotiv | Cup |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Lokomotiv 4-2 Spartak Moscow | Premier League |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Spartak Moscow 5-2 Lokomotiv | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Lokomotiv vs Spartak Moscow on Jul 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lokomotiv score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Spartak Moscow score 1.6 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv | 1.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Spartak Moscow | 1.6 | 0.9 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lokomotiv sit 14th in Premier League (3 points from 5 matches) and Spartak Moscow sit 2nd (12 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spartak Moscow | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 12 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lokomotiv vs Spartak Moscow?
- The Footlab model makes Spartak Moscow the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Lokomotiv.
- Where and when is Lokomotiv vs Spartak Moscow played?
- Lokomotiv vs Spartak Moscow is played on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at RZD Arena, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.