Rustavi vs Saburtalo: prediction and stats
Erovnuli LigaRegular Season - 27Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Teknikuri Tsentri, Rustavi
The Footlab model makes Rustavi the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Saburtalo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rustavi vs Saburtalo?
A very open match: only 85 Elo points separate Rustavi (1,691) and Saburtalo (1,776).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rustavi have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Saburtalo have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gagra(home) | 3-0 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Dinamo Tbilisi(away) | 3-0 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Torpedo Kutaisi(home) | 1-0 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Spaeri(home) | 3-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Varketili(away) | 1-0 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Jagiellonia(away) | 0-4 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Torpedo Kutaisi(away) | 3-4 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Larne(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Larne(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Slovan Bratislava(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Rustavi win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Saburtalo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 17, 2026 | Saburtalo 1-2 Rustavi | Erovnuli Liga |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Rustavi 2-1 Saburtalo | Erovnuli Liga |
| Oct 6, 2019 | Rustavi 0-3 Saburtalo | Erovnuli Liga |
| Jul 2, 2019 | Saburtalo 2-2 Rustavi | Erovnuli Liga |
| May 10, 2019 | Rustavi 3-1 Saburtalo | Erovnuli Liga |
| Mar 10, 2019 | Saburtalo 2-1 Rustavi | Erovnuli Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Rustavi score 1.5 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Saburtalo score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rustavi | 1.5 | 0.8 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Saburtalo | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rustavi sit 1st in Erovnuli Liga (41 points from 22 matches) and Saburtalo sit 3rd (34 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rustavi | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 29 | 18 | 41 |
| 3 | Saburtalo | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 22 | 34 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rustavi vs Saburtalo?
- The Footlab model makes Rustavi the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Saburtalo.
- Where and when is Rustavi vs Saburtalo played?
- Rustavi vs Saburtalo is played on September 19, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Teknikuri Tsentri, in the Erovnuli Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.