Sacramento Republic vs Colorado Springs: prediction and stats
USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on October 11, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC)Heart Health Park, Sacramento, California
The Footlab model makes Sacramento Republic the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Colorado Springs. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sacramento Republic vs Colorado Springs?
A very open match: only 50 Elo points separate Sacramento Republic (1,802) and Colorado Springs (1,752).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sacramento Republic have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Colorado Springs have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Phoenix Rising(home) | 2-2 | USL Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lexington(home) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds(away) | 0-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 6, 2026 | FC Tulsa(away) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Sporting JAX(home) | 5-0 | USL Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | El Paso Locomotive(home) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Phoenix Rising(away) | 1-3 | USL Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Birmingham Legion(home) | 3-2 | USL Championship |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Spokane Velocity(away) | 1-1 | USL League One Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Rhode Island(away) | 0-2 | USL Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Sacramento Republic win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Colorado Springs win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 2026 | Colorado Springs 0-1 Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Colorado Springs 1-0 Sacramento Republic | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Colorado Springs 0-2 Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| Mar 23, 2025 | Sacramento Republic 2-2 Colorado Springs | USL Championship |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Sacramento Republic 0-1 Colorado Springs | USL Championship |
| Apr 7, 2024 | Colorado Springs 0-2 Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
Last archived meeting: Colorado Springs vs Sacramento Republic on Jun 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sacramento Republic score 1.2 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Colorado Springs score 1.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento Republic | 1.2 | 0.9 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Colorado Springs | 1.4 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sacramento Republic sit 6th in USL Championship (16 points from 11 matches) and Colorado Springs sit 11th (13 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Sacramento Republic | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 16 |
| 6 | Sacramento Republic | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 27 | 18 | 31 |
| 9 | Colorado Springs | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 32 | 32 | 28 |
| 11 | Colorado Springs | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 13 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sacramento Republic vs Colorado Springs?
- The Footlab model makes Sacramento Republic the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Colorado Springs.
- Where and when is Sacramento Republic vs Colorado Springs played?
- Sacramento Republic vs Colorado Springs is played on October 11, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC) at Heart Health Park, in the USL Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 7, 2026Lexington1-2Louisville City
- Mar 7, 2026Charleston Battery2-1Pittsburgh Riverhounds
- Mar 8, 2026Sporting JAX0-3Hartford Athletic
- Mar 8, 2026Birmingham Legion0-1Tampa Bay Rowdies
- Mar 8, 2026San Antonio2-1Phoenix Rising
- Mar 8, 2026El Paso Locomotive2-2Colorado Springs
- Mar 8, 2026Sacramento Republic2-0FC Tulsa
- Mar 8, 2026Monterey Bay0-1Oakland Roots