Match

Sagan Tosu vs Vegalta Sendai: prediction and stats

J2 LeagueMatchday 18Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 05:00 AM (UTC)Ekimae Real Estate Stadium, Tosu

Sagan TosuVegalta Sendai

The Footlab AI model makes Vegalta Sendai the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Sagan Tosu. The most likely score is 1-1. If Vegalta Sendai wins, the most likely score is 0-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 5,760 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Sagan Tosu vs Vegalta Sendai?

A very open match: only 79 Elo points separate Sagan Tosu (1,856) and Vegalta Sendai (1,935).

34%29%37%
Sagan Tosu winDrawVegalta Sendai win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Sagan Tosu vs Vegalta Sendai

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Sagan Tosu

4-3-3
  1. 9T. Takahashi
  2. 11R. Shiohama
  3. 15N. Sakai
  1. 16K. Nishizawa
  2. 7K. Sakamoto
  3. 24K. Yamauchi
  1. 44K. Abe
  2. 28M. Yoshida
  3. 26T. Ando
  4. 37R. Morishita
  1. 12S. Matsubara

Vegalta Sendai

4-3-3
  1. 27H. Iwabuchi
  2. 7M. Nakajima
  3. 18T. Umeki
  1. 8H. Takeda
  2. 37Y. Sugiyama
  3. 14R. Sagara
  1. 22R. Takada
  2. 5M. Sugata
  3. 42H. Ishii
  4. 3M. Okuyama
  1. 33A. Hayashi

Computed on November 14, 2026 at 07:07 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sagan Tosu have 6 wins, 0 draws and 9 defeats; Vegalta Sendai have 8, 2 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Sagan Tosu
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 7, 2026Kataller Toyama(home)1-2J2 League
Nov 3, 2026Shonan Bellmare(away)1-0J2 League
Oct 31, 2026Jubilo Iwata(away)0-2J2 League
Oct 28, 2026Kawasaki Frontale(home)0-2J-League Cup
Oct 25, 2026Vanraure Hachinohe(home)2-0J2 League
Vegalta Sendai
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 8, 2026Ventforet Kofu(home)5-1J2 League
Nov 3, 2026Kataller Toyama(away)0-1J2 League
Oct 31, 2026Omiya Ardija(home)1-2J2 League
Oct 25, 2026Albirex Niigata(away)1-2J2 League
Oct 21, 2026Imabari(home)3-1J2 League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Sagan Tosu wins, 0 draws, 3 Vegalta Sendai wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Oct 26, 2025Vegalta Sendai 3-2 Sagan TosuJ2 League
Feb 15, 2025Sagan Tosu 0-1 Vegalta SendaiJ2 League
Aug 29, 2021Vegalta Sendai 0-1 Sagan TosuJ1 League
Mar 10, 2021Sagan Tosu 5-0 Vegalta SendaiJ1 League
Nov 25, 2020Sagan Tosu 0-1 Vegalta SendaiJ1 League
Nov 8, 2020Vegalta Sendai 0-3 Sagan TosuJ1 League

Last archived meeting: Vegalta Sendai vs Sagan Tosu on Oct 26, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Sagan Tosu score 0.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Vegalta Sendai score 2.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Sagan Tosu0.91.336/156/15
Vegalta Sendai2.01.3311/1510/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Sagan Tosu sit 13th in J2 League (20 points from 16 matches) and Vegalta Sendai sit 4th (30 points from 16 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
4Vegalta Sendai16934281530
13Sagan Tosu16628161920

A question about Sagan Tosu vs Vegalta Sendai?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Sagan Tosu vs Vegalta Sendai?
The Footlab AI model makes Vegalta Sendai the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Sagan Tosu.
Where and when is Sagan Tosu vs Vegalta Sendai played?
Sagan Tosu vs Vegalta Sendai is played on November 21, 2026 at 05:00 AM (UTC) at Ekimae Real Estate Stadium, in the J2 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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