Saguntino vs Utiel: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Group 6 - 5Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Nou Camp de Morvedre, Sagunt
The Footlab model makes Saguntino the favourite at 65%, against 23% for a draw and 12% for Utiel. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Saguntino vs Utiel?
Saguntino starts as the favourite with a 164-point Elo edge (1,856 vs 1,693).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Saguntino have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Utiel have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Reddis(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 24, 2026 | La Nucía(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| May 17, 2026 | La Nucía(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| May 9, 2026 | Hércules II(home) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| May 2, 2026 | Vall de Uxó(away) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Vall de Uxó(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| May 2, 2026 | Alzira(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Jove Español(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Roda(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | RC Catarroja(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Saguntino win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Utiel win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | Utiel 1-3 Saguntino | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| Sep 7, 2025 | Saguntino 2-0 Utiel | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| May 4, 2025 | Saguntino 1-2 Utiel | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Utiel 1-1 Saguntino | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 |
How many goals should we expect?
Saguntino score 1.3 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Utiel score 1.0 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saguntino | 1.3 | 0.8 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Utiel | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Saguntino sit 2nd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 (66 points from 34 matches) and Utiel sit 16th (31 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Saguntino | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 50 | 30 | 66 |
| 16 | Utiel | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 45 | 31 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Saguntino vs Utiel?
- The Footlab model makes Saguntino the favourite at 65%, against 23% for a draw and 12% for Utiel.
- Where and when is Saguntino vs Utiel played?
- Saguntino vs Utiel is played on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Nou Camp de Morvedre, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 6.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.