Salernitana vs Bari: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone CGirone C - 8Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Arechi, Salerno
The Footlab model makes Salernitana the favourite at 54%, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Bari. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Salernitana vs Bari?
A very open match: only 66 Elo points separate Salernitana (1,897) and Bari (1,831).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Salernitana have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Bari have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Scafatese(home) | 1-2 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sambiase(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 27, 2026 | Union Brescia(away) | 0-2 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| May 24, 2026 | Union Brescia(home) | 1-1 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| May 20, 2026 | Ravenna(away) | 2-0 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Cavese(home) | 3-0 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Casarano(home) | 1-0 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| May 22, 2026 | Sudtirol(away) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| May 15, 2026 | Sudtirol(home) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| May 8, 2026 | Catanzaro(away) | 3-2 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Salernitana win(s), 5 draw(s), 1 Bari win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2025 | Bari 0-0 Salernitana | Serie B |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Salernitana 0-2 Bari | Serie B |
| Jul 31, 2024 | Bari 1-1 Salernitana | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 7, 2018 | Bari 1-1 Salernitana | Serie B |
| Nov 4, 2017 | Salernitana 2-2 Bari | Serie B |
| Apr 25, 2017 | Salernitana 0-0 Bari | Serie B |
How many goals should we expect?
Salernitana score 1.6 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Bari score 1.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salernitana | 1.6 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Bari | 1.3 | 1.4 | 5 | 5/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bari | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Salernitana vs Bari?
- The Footlab model makes Salernitana the favourite at 54%, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Bari.
- Where and when is Salernitana vs Bari played?
- Salernitana vs Bari is played on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Arechi, in the Serie C - Girone C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.